During the savings and loan debacle in 1984,we looked at every single failure,and we looked for common characteristics,
1984年储贷危机期间，我们仔细研究了每一个破产案例。寻找其中的共同点。
And we discovered this recipe was common to each of these frauds.
我们发现这一套路在每个欺诈案例中都存在。
In other words, a coroner could find these things because this is a fatal recipe that will destroy the banks as well as the economy.
换言之，验尸官能够找到这些东西。因为这是致命的“毒方”不仅会毁掉银行，也会毁掉我们的经济。
And it also turns out to be precisely what could have stopped this crisis, the one that cost us 11 trillion dollars just in the household sector.
这也正是可以阻止这场危机发生的东西，这一危机仅在经济的私人部门就让我们损失11万亿。
Yhat cost us 10 million jobs, was the easiest financial crisis by far to have avoided completely if we had simply learned the lessons of epidemics of control fraud,particularly using this recipe.
丢掉1000万个工作岗位，如果我们能够运用这一固定套路从大面积的管理欺诈行为中吸取教训，我们就可以轻而易举地避免这场危机的发生。
So let's go to this crisis, and the two huge epidemics of loan origination fraud that drove the crisis appraisal fraud and liar's loans.
现在我们来看看这场危机以及导致它发生的两种大面积借贷欺诈行为：估价欺诈和欺骗性贷款。
and what we're going to see in looking at both of these is we got warnings that were incredibly early about these frauds.
研究这两者，我们发现：第一，对于这些欺诈行为，我们接到的预警信号非常之早。
We got warnings that we could have taken advantage of easily,because back in the savings and loan debacle,we had figured out how to respond and prevent these crises.
第二，我们可以轻而易举地利用这些预警信号采取措施，因为早在储贷危机时期，我们就知道了如何应对，从而避免危机的发生。
And three, the warnings were unambiguous.
第三，这些预警信号确切不疑。
They were obvious that what was going on was an epidemic of accounting control fraud building up.
它们清楚地表明了大面积的会计管理欺诈行为正在升级。
Let's take appraisal fraud first.
我们先来看估价欺诈
This is simply where you inflate the value of the home that is being pledged as security for the loan.
简单地说，估价欺诈就是夸大用作贷款担保的房屋的价值。
In 2000, the year 2000,that is over a year before Enron fails, by the way,the honest appraisers got together a formal petition begging the federal government to act.
在2000年，也就是安然破产一年多前，有节操的估价师聚在一起，起草了一份正式的请愿书。要求联邦政府采取措施，
And the industry to act,to stop this epidemic of appraisal fraud.
要求行业自身采取措施，制止这种大面积的估价欺诈行为。
And the appraisers explained how it was occurring,that banks were demanding that appraisers inflate the appraisal,
这些估价师解释问题是如何发生的：银行要求估价师弄虚作假夸大估值。
and that if the appraisers refused to do so,they, the banks, would blacklist honest appraisers and refuse to use them.
一旦估价师拒绝配合，银行就把这些有节操的估价师拉入黑名单，不再雇佣他们。
Now, we've seen this before in the savings and loan debacle,and we know that this kind of fraud can only originate from the lenders.
在储贷危机期间，我们就遇到过这种情况，我们知道这种欺诈行为的罪魁祸首就是借方。
and that no honest lender would ever inflate the appraisal,because it's the great protection against loss.
有节操的借方绝对不会为估值灌水，因为拒绝灌水才是防止损失的上策。
So this was an incredibly early warning, 2000.
所以说，预警信号早在2000年就已出现。
