They don't want to acknowledge the role played by accident in their lives
他们不愿承认机会事件 在他们生命中所扮演的角色
There is a reason for this the world does not want to acknowledge it either
他们这么认为是有原因的 这个世界也不愿意承认运气的角色
I wrote a book about this, called Moneyball
为这我写了一本书 叫《点球成金》
It was ostensibly about baseball but was in fact about something else
这表面上是写棒球 其实是在写别的东西
There are poor teams and rich teams in professional baseball and they spend radically different sums of money on their players
在职棒里有穷的球队和富的球队 他们用在球员身上的钱有巨额的差异
When I wrote my book the richest team the New York Yankees, was then spending about $120 million on its 25 players
当我写这本书的时候 职棒里最富的球队 纽约洋基队 在它的25名球员身上花费约1.2亿美元
The poorest team, the Oakland A's
而最穷的队 奥克兰A队的花费
They was spending about $30 million
大约是3000万美元
And yet the Oakland team was winning more games or as many games as the New York Yankees
然而奥克兰队却赢了比洋基多 或者说和洋基一样多的比赛
Then more games than every other team all of them were richer than they were
并超过其他任何一家 比奥克兰队更富有的球队
This isn't supposed to happen. In theory rich teams should buy the best players and win all the time
这本是不应发生的 理论上讲 有钱的球队应该买最好的球员 并赢得所有比赛
But the Oakland team had figured something out that no one else figured out the rich teams didn't really understand
但奥克兰队发现了一个 其他人没有发现的秘密 有钱的球队并不真正明白谁是最好的球员
who the best baseball players were. The players were misvalued
球员们被错估了
And the biggest single reason they were misvalued was that the experts did not pay sufficient attention to the role of luck in baseball success
而他们被错估的根本原因在于 专家们没有在棒球成功中 给予运气足够的重视
Players got given credit for things they did that depended on the performance of others pitchers got paid for winning games hitters got paid for knocking in runners on base
球员们因他们基于其他人的好表现上 做的事情而得到称赞 投手的身价由胜场决定 击球手的身价由送垒上跑者得分决定
Players got blamed and credited for events beyond their control
球员们因他们无法控制的事件而受到批评或称赞
Where balls that got hit happened to land on the field, for example
比如说他们击中的球恰好落在场地的哪个位置
So forget baseball, forget sports
放下棒球和体育不谈
Here you had these corporate employees, paid millions of dollars a year
现在你有一批企业员工 年薪几百万美元
They were doing exactly the same job that people in their business done for more than one century
他们做的事和他们行业里其他人 一直以来做的事没有任何差别
