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In his book The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell argues that social epidemics are driven in large part by the action of a tiny minority of special individuals, often called influentials, who are unusually informed, persuasive, or well-connected.
在《引爆流行》这本书中，作者 Malcolm Gladwell 认为社会流行潮流在很大程度上是由一小部分特殊个体的行为引起的。这些人就是人们常说的影响者。他们异乎寻常的博闻多识，能言善辩，人脉广泛。
The idea is intuitively compelling, but it doesn't explain how ideas actually spread.
从直觉上讲Malcolm Gladwell的理论似乎很有说服力，但是它没有解释流行观念的实际传播过程。
The supposed importance of influentials derives from a plausible sounding but largely untested theory called the "two step flow of communication": Information flows from the media to the influentials and from them to everyone else.
人们之所以认为影响者很重要，是源于"两级传播"理论。即信息先从媒体流向影响者，然后再从影响者流向其他人。这一理论看似合理，但未经验证。
Marketers have embraced the two-step flow because it suggests that if they can just find and influence the influentials, those selected people will do most of the work for them.
营销人员接受两级传播理论是因为该理论认为如果能够找到影响者，并对他们施加影响。这些精英们就会替他们完成大部分的营销传播工作。
The theory also seems to explain the sudden and unexpected popularity of certain looks, brands, or neighborhoods.
这一理论似乎还可以解释某些装扮、品牌或社区为何会突然受到出乎意料的追捧。
In many such cases, a cursory search for causes finds that some small group of people was wearing, promoting, or developing whatever it is before anyone else paid attention.
对于许多诸如此类的情况，如果只是走马观花地寻找原因，你会发现总是有一小群人开风气之先，率先穿上、宣传和开发人们此前从未留意的东西。
Anecdotal evidence of this kind fits nicely with the idea that only certain special people can drive trends
这种事实证据与该观点正好一拍即合--只有一些特别的人才能引领潮流。
In their recent work, however, some researchers have come up with the finding that influentials have far less impact on social epidemics than is generally supposed.
但是在最近的研究中，一些研究人员发现，影响者对社会流行潮流的影响力远比人们认为的要小。
In fact, they don't seem to be required of all.
事实上，他们似乎根本就是无关紧要。
The researchers' argument stems from a simple observing about social influence, with the exception of a few celebrities like Oprah Winfrey-whose outsize presence is primarily a function of media, not interpersonal, influence-even the most influential members of a population simply don't interact with that many others.
研究者的观点源于对社会影响力的简单观察：除了少数像 Oprah Winfrey这样的名人之外（她强大的人气影响力主要来自媒体影响力，而非她与观众互动的人际影响力），即使人群中最有影响力的人也无法与那么多的"其他人"互动，从而引领潮流。
Yet it is precisely these non-celebrity influentials who, according to the two-step-flow theory, are supposed to drive social epidemics by influencing their friends and colleagues directly.
然而根据两级传播理论，正是这些非名人影响者直接影响了他们的朋友和同事，从而推动了社会流行潮流。
For a social epidemic to occur, however, each person so affected, must then influence his or her own acquaintances, who must in turn influence theirs, and so on;
但是，要让一种社会流行潮流真正发生，每个受影响的人还必须影响他的熟人，而他的熟人又必须影响其他熟人，
and just how many others pay attention to each of these people has little to do with the initial influential.
依此类推；但是会有多少人去关注这些熟人中的每个人，与最初的影响者几乎没有关系。
If people in the network just two degrees removed from the initial influential prove resistant, for example, the cascade of change won't propagate very far or affect many people.
举个例子来说，在这个人际影响的网络中，如果第一个影响者受到两次抵制，那么他的连锁影响范围就不会继续扩大，或者说影响的人不会很多。
Building on the basic truth about interpersonal influence, the researchers studied the dynamics of social influence by conducting thousands of computer simulations of populations, manipulating a number of variables relating to people's ability to influence others and their tendency to be influenced.
基于这一人际影响力的基本事实，研究者们研究了社会影响的动力机制。我们对不同人群进行了成千上万次计算机模拟，不断调整人们影响他人和受他人影响的各种变量。
They found that the principal requirement for what we call "global cascades"- the widespread propagation of influence through networks - is the presence not of a few influentials but, rather, of a critical mass of easily influenced people.
他们发现，人们所说的"全球连锁反应" -- 影响力通过（人际）网络进行广泛传播 -- 发生的主要前提，并不取决于是否存在着那么几个影响者，而主要取决于易受影响的人们是否达到了临界数量。
