高等教育入学率连续第二年下降，无视封锁后反弹的预测，并创下两年来的历史新低。
Higher education enrollment rates dropped for the second straight year, defying predictions of a post-lockdown bounceback and hitting a record low for a two-year span.
国家学生信息交换所研究中心的新数据显示，高等教育入学率几乎没有甚至没有从去年因 COVID-19 导致的急剧下降中恢复的迹象。
Higher education enrollment rates show little to no signs of recovery from the steep drops that occurred last year due to COVID-19, new data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center show.
本科生入学率继续下降，自 2020 年秋季以来下降了 3.2%，几乎与去年秋季下降 3.4% 的情况相吻合，并且与 2019 年大流行前水平相比下降了 6.5%。
Undergraduate enrollment continued to decline, falling by 3.2% since fall 2020, virtually mirroring last fall's drop of 3.4% and combining for a 6.5% drop from 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
“招生情况并没有好转，”国家学生信息交换中心研究中心执行主任道格夏皮罗说。 “他们还在变得更糟。”
"Enrollments are not getting better," Doug Shapiro, executive director of National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, said. "They're still getting worse."
社区大学仍然是受灾最严重的部门，入学率下降了 5.6%，低于去年两年制大学经历的 9%。但综合起来，与 2019 年相比下降了 14%。
Community colleges remained the hardest hit sector, with enrollment dropping 5.6%, less than the 9% gutting that the two-year colleges experienced last year. But combined, it represents a severe 14% decline compared to 2019.
“这些学生通常会在经济衰退期间成群结队地入学，然后我们预计他们会随着就业市场的改善而重返工作岗位，”夏皮罗说。 “但这一次，就好像那波的整个波峰都被大流行吞没了，我们在这里看到的是两个低谷，一个接一个。经济衰退根本没有好处，只有一个缺点，我们'现在看到的是复苏——或者至少是就业市场的复苏。”
"These are the students who would normally be enrolling in droves during a recession, and then we expect them to go back to work as the job market improves," Shapiro said. "But this time, it's like the entire crest of that wave got swallowed up by the pandemic and what we're seeing here is two troughs, one after the other instead. There was simply no upside from the recession, just a downside that we're seeing now from the recovery – or at least the recovery in the job market."
对入学率的早期分析代表了截至 9 月 23 日该国大约一半的高等教育机构报告的数据。虽然随着更多学校在下个月报告其入学数据，这些数据可能会发生变化，但目前的数据代表了超过 800 万名学生。
The early analysis of enrollment represents figures reported by roughly half of the country's postsecondary institutions as of Sept. 23. And while they could shift as more schools report their enrollment data over the next month, the current data represents more than 8 million students.
“如果目前的下降率，即 6 1/2%，能够保持下去，这将是美国至少过去 50 年来最大的两年入学率下降，”夏皮罗说。教育部追溯到 1970 年的数据显示，此前最严重的两年下降发生在 2011 年至 2013 年，当时入学率下降了 3.3%。
"If this current rate of decline, this 6 1/2 percent, were to hold up, it would be the largest two-year enrollment decline in at least the last 50 years in the U.S," Shapiro said. Education Department data going back to 1970 shows the previous worst two-year decline occurred from 2011 to 2013, when enrollment dropped 3.3%.
“那是我们从大衰退的历史高点回落的时候，所以那些下跌并没有那么痛苦，”他说。 “我们今天看到的这些下降来自已经低迷的入学水平。”
"That's when we were coming off of all-time highs from the Great Recession, so those declines weren't so painful," he said. "These declines that we are seeing today are from an already depressed level of enrollment."
其他令人担忧的趋势比比皆是：今年秋季公立四年制入学人数下降幅度大于去年秋季，分别为 2.3% 和 0.8%。在主要在线的学院和大学中，本科生和研究生的入学率分别下降了 5.4% 和 13.6%，几乎抹去了去年这两个部门近 9% 的入学率增长。
Other worrisome trends abound: Public four-year enrollment fell more this fall than last fall, 2.3% compared to 0.8%. And at colleges and universities that are primarily online, undergraduate and graduate enrollments dropped by 5.4% and 13.6%, respectively, virtually erasing the nearly 9% enrollment increases both sectors experienced last year.
四年制私立非营利组织的本科生表现更好，入学率仅比去年下降 0.7%。
Undergraduates at private nonprofit four-years fared better, with enrollment falling only 0.7% compared to last year.
高等教育专家预测新生入学率将在大流行年之后反弹，导致许多学生在开始学习之前进行所谓的间隔年，但这次入学率也继续下降，这次下降了 3.1%。尽管下降速度不到上次下降的三分之一，但清算所的分析师强调，它“远未稳定下来”。
Freshman enrollment, which higher education experts predicted would bounce back after a pandemic year that resulted in many students taking a so-called gap year before beginning their studies, also continued to fall, this time by 3.1%. Though the rate of decline is less than one-third that of the previous fall, analysts at the clearinghouse underscored that it "remains far from having stabilized."
值得注意的是，私立和公立四年制学院和大学之间存在巨大差异，每个部门中只有“高选择性”学校的入学人数有所增加。
Notably, there was a sharp disparity within the private and public four-year colleges and universities, with only the "highly selective" schools in each sector recording increases in enrollment.
高选择性私立非营利学校的入学人数增加了 4.3%，超过了大流行前的水平，现在与 2019 年相比，入学人数增加了 1.8%。选择性”——从 1.8% 下降到 2.5%。包括州立旗舰在内的高选择性公立大学增加了 1%，而其他公立大学的入学率则从 2.8% 下降到 5.7%。被认为“不那么挑剔”的公立学院和大学现在招收的学生比大流行之前少了 8%。
Highly selective private nonprofit schools notched a 4.3% enrollment increase, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and now experiencing a 1.8% enrollment increase compared to 2019. Meanwhile, enrollment at other private nonprofits – those considered "very competitive," "competitive" and "less selective" – declined anywhere from 1.8% to 2.5%. And highly selective public universities, including the state flagships, increased 1% while enrollment at other public universities fell anywhere from 2.8% to 5.7%. Public colleges and universities considered "less selective" are currently enrolling 8% less students now than they did before the pandemic.
“当你降低选择性时看到这种趋势是非常惊人的，”夏皮罗说。 “最大的问题是，我们在过去两年中失去的一些学生何时或是否会开始回来？他们能否重新进入教育渠道？”
"It was quite striking to see that trend as you go down the selectivity scale," Shapiro said. "The biggest questions are when or if ever will some of the students who we lost in the last two years start coming back? Will they be able to get back into the educational pipeline?"
“现在，很多年轻人似乎去工作而不是去上大学，”他继续说道，并指出对于来自低收入家庭的学生来说尤其如此，他们被当前的劳动力市场从高等教育中引诱出来. “这些学生一直处于大学和劳动力之间的最边缘，也是最需要在困难时期支持家庭的人。我想试图了解这些学生如何才能回到大学道路真的很重要。这对我们未来的劳动力很重要。”
"Right now, a lot of young people seem to be going to work instead of going to college," he continued, noting that was especially true for students from low-income families who have been lured away from higher education by the current labor market. "These students have always been the most on the margin between college and the workforce and also the most powerfully pulled away by the need to support their families through hard times. I think trying to understand how those students might ever get back to the college path is really important. It's important to our future workforce."
