Here's when high inflation will come to an end
We can't catch a break. Since the Covid-19 pandemic struck in the spring of 2020, the United States has suffered hundreds of thousands of deaths due to the virus and lost millions of jobs. There was much hope the pandemic would soon be behind us when the vaccines were rolled out this spring, but no such luck. The Delta variant of the virus hit us hard this fall, costing more lives and doing more economic damage, this time by igniting long-dormant inflation.
The consumer price index, which measures prices paid by the typical consumer, is up 6.2% over the past year through October, the highest inflation rate in more than 30 years. Prices are up strongly for everything from gasoline to a pound of ground beef to a used vehicle, which is putting a heavy financial weight on already hard-pressed families struggling with the economic fallout from the pandemic. For a household earning the median income of almost $70,000 per year, the acceleration in inflation is adding an estimated nearly $200 per month to living costs.
But this uncomfortably high inflation isn't here to stay. It won't be lower a month or even three months from now, as quelling the chaos created by the pandemic will take time. But a year from now, as the pandemic recedes, inflation will be low enough that we won't be talking about it. The hair-on-fire discourse over high inflation is understandable, but it's overdone.
Consider that inflation is up in part because businesses that suffered a direct hit from the pandemic, such as clothing stores, hotels, rental car companies and restaurants, are simply restoring prices they slashed earlier in the pandemic to survive. This is a one-time adjustment in their prices. To understand the size of the impact, consider that consumer price inflation over the past two years through October, which abstracts from the wild pandemic-induced swings in prices, is up 3.7% annually. Still high, but much less than 6.2%.
The higher inflation is also the result of businesses only slowly increasing production in response to recovering demand. This isn't unusual coming out of a recession. Businesses are unsure whether the stronger demand has staying power and are cautious about ramping up production. And it takes some doing to get shuttered factories, oil rigs and hotels back up and running. But if history is a guide, the higher prices will convince consumers to buy less of what costs more and convince businesses to increase production given how much money can be made at these higher prices. Frictions that slow supply catching up with demand ease, and inflation moderates.
This dynamic is playing out in the global oil market. Prior to the pandemic, the world was consuming, and oil companies were producing, more than 100 million barrels of oil a day, and gas cost $2.50 a gallon. Today, because of the pandemic, the world is still consuming roughly 100 million barrels a day, but oil companies are producing even less, causing gas prices to soar to close to $3.50 a gallon. It's not that the oil industry doesn't have the capacity to produce more, but it likes the higher prices and is thus reluctant to increase production. But it won't take long before the juicy profits and competitive pressures entice the industry to increase output. Oil and gas prices will come back down, and instead of adding to inflation, they will become a drag on it.
There is no doubt that the gap between demand and supply, and thus inflation, will be much more persistent coming out of the pandemic. Global supply chains have been severely scrambled. Emerging economies, particularly in Asia, where many global supply chains begin, were especially hard-hit by the Delta wave. For example, Malaysian semiconductor plants were severely disrupted as infections surged in the country, forcing factories to shut down and upending vehicle production that depends on those chips across the globe. Vehicle inventories have never been lower in the US, and prices have surged.
The Delta wave also reshuffled the already topsy-turvy job market. Millions of workers weren't able to fill the near-record number of unfilled open jobs because they got sick, were taking care of the sick or fearful of getting sick. Employers have had no choice but to provide signing bonuses and higher pay to attract and retain workers, and then raise prices to help cover their higher labor costs. But as Delta fades and workers get healthy and return to work, the acute labor shortages and outsize pay increases will end, which means higher prices will too. What's more, workers who permanently lost jobs during the pandemic will find a new employer; parents who've been home tending to children in school online will return to work as schools continue to return to in-person learning; and parents with younger children will take jobs as children eventually get vaccinated and daycare becomes more widely available.
My inflation outlook could be Pollyannish, but only if inflation expectations — what investors, businesses, consumers and economists think inflation will be in the future — rise. If there is a widespread view that inflation will remain high, workers will demand higher wages to compensate and businesses will ante up, believing they can pass along their higher costs to their customers. This vicious wage-price spiral was behind the persistently high inflation we suffered 30 years ago. But there is no evidence that this is happening today. Investors' inflation expectations remain steadfast at just above 2%. This is spot-on with where the Federal Reserve Board, whose job it is to manage inflation, wants them.
All of this refutes the notion that the government spending and tax breaks to support the economy through the pandemic, including the American Rescue Plan this past March, are somehow behind the higher inflation. These factors certainly gave a boost to demand last spring, but that faded when the Delta variant gained momentum this fall. There is also no good way to connect the dots between the Build Back Better agenda, which is currently being debated in Congress, and higher inflation. The legislation provides support for public infrastructure and various social programs, and longer term, it is designed to lift the economy's growth potential, which will ease inflationary pressures.
The economy remains closely tethered to the pandemic. This summer's Delta wave of infections hurt growth and sparked inflation, but as infections subside, growth is already picking up and inflation will go back into hibernation.
这是高通胀结束的时候
我们不能休息。自 2020 年春季发生 Covid-19 大流行以来，美国已因该病毒造成数十万人死亡，并失去了数百万个工作岗位。当今年春天推出疫苗时，我们寄希望于大流行很快就会过去，但没有这样的运气。今年秋天，病毒的 Delta 变体给我们带来了沉重打击，这一次，它点燃了长期处于休眠状态的通货膨胀，造成更多人丧生并造成更多经济损失。
衡量典型消费者支付价格的消费者价格指数在截至 10 月份的过去一年中上涨了 6.2%，是 30 多年来的最高通胀率。从汽油到一磅碎牛肉再到二手车，所有商品的价格都在强劲上涨，这给本已陷入困境、在大流行带来的经济影响中苦苦挣扎的家庭带来了沉重的财务负担。对于一个年收入中位数接近 70,000 美元的家庭来说，通货膨胀的加速使生活成本每月增加近 200 美元。
但这种令人不安的高通胀不会持续下去。从现在起一个月甚至三个月都不会降低，因为平息大流行造成的混乱需要时间。但是一年后，随着大流行的消退，通货膨胀将足够低，我们不会谈论它。关于高通胀的言论是可以理解的，但有些过头了。
考虑到通货膨胀上升的部分原因是受到大流行直接打击的企业，例如服装店、酒店、汽车租赁公司和餐馆，只是恢复了他们在大流行早期为生存而大幅削减的价格。这是他们价格的一次性调整。要了解影响的大小，请考虑到截至 10 月的过去两年消费者价格通胀（从大流行引起的价格剧烈波动中抽象出来）每年上涨 3.7%。仍然很高，但远低于 6.2%。
较高的通货膨胀也是企业只是缓慢增加产量以应对需求复苏的结果。走出衰退并不罕见。企业不确定强劲的需求是否具有持久力，并对提高产量持谨慎态度。需要做一些事情才能让关闭的工厂、石油钻井平台和酒店恢复运行。但如果以历史为鉴，更高的价格将说服消费者减少购买成本更高的东西，并说服企业增加产量，因为在这些更高的价格下可以赚到多少钱。减缓供应追赶需求的摩擦有所缓解，通胀趋于缓和。
这种动态正在全球石油市场上演。在大流行之前，全世界都在消费，石油公司每天生产超过 1 亿桶石油，而天然气的价格为每加仑 2.50 美元。今天，由于大流行，世界每天仍消耗大约 1 亿桶石油，但石油公司的产量更少，导致天然气价格飙升至接近每加仑 3.50 美元。不是石油工业没有能力生产更多，而是它喜欢更高的价格，因此不愿增加产量。但用不了多久，丰厚的利润和竞争压力就会吸引该行业增加产量。石油和天然气价格将回落，而不是加剧通胀，反而会拖累通胀。
毫无疑问，大流行之后，供需之间的差距以及通胀将更加持久。全球供应链已被严重打乱。新兴经济体，特别是在许多全球供应链开始的亚洲，受到三角洲浪潮的打击尤其严重。例如，随着该国感染激增，马来西亚半导体工厂受到严重破坏，迫使工厂关闭并颠覆全球依赖这些芯片的汽车生产。美国的汽车库存从未如此低，价格也飙升。
Delta 浪潮还重新洗牌了本已混乱的就业市场。数以百万计的工人因为生病、照顾病人或害怕生病而无法填补接近记录的空缺职位空缺。雇主别无选择，只能提供签约奖金和更高的工资来吸引和留住工人，然后提高价格以帮助支付更高的劳动力成本。但随着 Delta 的消退和工人恢复健康并重返工作岗位，严重的劳动力短缺和大幅加薪将结束，这意味着更高的价格也将结束。更重要的是，在大流行期间永久失业的工人将找到新的雇主；随着学校继续恢复面对面学习，一直在家照顾在线学校孩子的父母将重返工作岗位；随着孩子们最终接种疫苗并且日托变得更加普遍，有年幼孩子的父母将开始工作。
我的通胀前景可能是波利安式的，但前提是通胀预期——投资者、企业、消费者和经济学家认为的未来通胀——上升。如果普遍认为通胀将保持高位，工人将要求更高的工资作为补偿，企业就会加码，相信他们可以将更高的成本转嫁给客户。这种恶性的工资价格螺旋是我们 30 年前遭受的持续高通胀的背后原因。但没有证据表明今天正在发生这种情况。投资者的通胀预期仍稳定在略高于 2% 的水平。这与负责管理通胀的联邦储备委员会想要的正好相符。
所有这些都驳斥了这样一种观点，即政府通过支出和税收减免来支持经济度过大流行，包括今年 3 月的美国救援计划，在某种程度上是高通胀背后的原因。这些因素确实在去年春天提振了需求，但当 Delta 变体在今年秋天获得动力时，这种情况就消退了。国会目前正在辩论的“重建更好”议程与更高的通货膨胀之间也没有很好的联系方式。该立法为公共基础设施和各种社会项目提供支持，从长远来看，它旨在提升经济增长潜力，从而缓解通胀压力。
经济仍与大流行密切相关。今年夏天的三角洲感染浪潮损害了增长并引发了通货膨胀，但随着感染的消退，增长已经开始回升，通货膨胀将重新进入休眠状态。
