拜登提名杰罗姆鲍威尔为美联储主席

New York (CNN Business)President Joe Biden on Monday formally announced his intent to nominate Jerome Powell to serve as the chairman of the Federal Reserve for a second term and nominate Lael Brainard to serve as the Fed's vice chair.

Powell's four-year term is up in February, and the President faced a key decision of whether to keep Powell, who was put in the job by a Republican, in the government's most important economic policy job.

At a time when rising consumer prices, inflation and shortages caused by the supply chain crisis are urgent concerns of the White House, there has been heightened focus on who the President was going to pick to lead the nation's central banking system.

The White House cited Powell's "steady leadership" amid the economic turbulence of the pandemic as a reason for the decision. The Powell-led Fed took a series of unprecedented steps in March and April 2020 that helped ensure the Covid recession did not morph into a full-blown depression.

Economic recovery, the White House said in a statement, "is a testament to the success of the President's economic agenda, and it is a testament to decisive action by Chair Powell and the Federal Reserve to cushion the impact of the pandemic and get America's economy back on track."

Biden expressed his "full confidence" in Brainard and Powell in a statement.

"I'm confident that Chair Powell and Dr. Brainard's focus on keeping inflation low, prices stable, and delivering full employment will make our economy stronger than ever before. Together, they also share my deep belief that urgent action is needed to address the economic risks posed by climate change, and stay ahead of emerging risks in our financial system," Biden said.

Tough road ahead

Assuming he gets confirmed by the Senate, Powell faces a very challenging situation in his second term at the helm of the Fed.

The United States is grappling with its first inflation scare in decades, parts of the economy remain scarred by the worst pandemic in a century and the Fed's credibility has been called into question by a trading scandal.

Although Powell seemed to put out the fire over the insider trading scandal with tough new ethics rules, inflation looks like the trickiest obstacle facing the Fed over the coming months.

Up until very recently, the Fed has kept its foot firmly on the pedal, with rock-bottom interest rates and a massive bond buying program stimulating the US economy and financial markets. That's despite the fact that inflation is surging, hiring is booming and the housing market is arguably hotter than ever before.

Although managing inflation is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve, sticker shock is coming at a political cost to Biden, whose poll numbers have taken a hit in recent months as voters get more worried about the economy.

"All Americans are feeling inflation," Narayana Kocherlakota, former president of the Minneapolis Fed, told CNN. "Biden is saying, 'I am trusting my political future in this Fed leadership. I trust them to get inflation under control.'"

By keeping Powell in charge, the White House is signaling support for the central bank's view that inflation is a temporary phenomenon, albeit one that has lasted longer than the Fed anticipated.

But there was little evidence Biden was seriously considering a Fed chair who would be much more aggressive on inflation. Brainard, who ultimately did not get the top job, has monetary policy views more or less in line with Powell's.

"It's not like Brainard is a stealth hawk," said Kocherlakota.

Indeed, Goldman Sachs said Monday after the Powell news that it continues to expect the Fed to only gradually lift interest rates, beginning in July.

Why Biden picked Powell

By sticking with Powell, the Fed is opting for continuity and confirmability. Not only has Powell garnered the support of Republicans and moderate Democrats, he is well respected on Wall Street and investors are very comfortable with his communication strategy.

Switching to a new face risked adding uncertainty to the confirmation process that could have rattled markets. And it would have added complexity to the already difficult task of reassuring investors nervous about the Fed unwinding its emergency policies.

"After an atypically lengthy deliberation phase, the White House ultimately went with the safest choice," said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG,. "The Powell pick provides leadership continuity that the market always appreciates and should give the White House a victory via a quick and relatively painless confirmation process. "

By choosing Powell, Biden is also sending a strong signal about the importance of an independent Fed, a norm that came under attack during the Trump era.

Powell vs. Brainard

Biden recently met with Powell and Brainard, a Federal Reserve governor, separately at the White House as he weighed his decision, CNN previously reported. Brainard had been viewed as the leading contender if the President decided against Powell for a second term.

"This is a good decision," former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher told CNN. "While Lael Brainard is a most capable economist, appointing her under pressure from progressive Senators like Elizabeth Warren would have sent a signal that the Fed has been overtly politicized, irreparably damaging its reputation for independence."

Powell has faced significant opposition from some progressive Democrats, who criticize his track record on financial regulation.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts said at a recent Senate hearing that Powell was a "dangerous man to head up the Fed" and that he has "regularly voted to deregulate Wall Street." She said a Republican majority at the Fed under Powell's leadership could "drive this economy over a financial cliff again."

"It's no secret I oppose Chair Jerome Powell's renomination, and I will vote against him," Warren said in a statement Monday. "I will support the President's nomination of Lael Brainard as Vice Chair. Powell's failures on regulation, climate, and ethics make the still-vacant position of Vice Chair of Supervision critically important. This position must be filled by a strong regulator with a proven track record of tough and effective enforcement - and it needs to be done quickly."

Former Minneapolis Fed president Kocherlakota agrees that in recent years the Fed has undone a lot of the protections put in place to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.

"I feel strongly that we need a correction on that course," Kocherlakota said.

Brainard has been much tougher on Wall Street, voting against some of the deregulatory steps the Fed has taken in recent years.

Yet Biden ultimately decided against nominating Brainard to fill the open vice chair for supervision role, which would have put her in charge of overseeing Wall Street.

But some key Democratic constituencies, such as organized labor, have signaled their support for him. Powell won Senate confirmation overwhelmingly for the position in 2018.

Some progressives have also accused Powell of failing to do enough to address the climate crisis.

Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse said in a statement that he's "disappointed" in Biden's choice to keep Powell in charge of the Fed. "I sincerely hope that, if confirmed, Powell will reassess his past opposition to utilizing the Fed's regulatory tools to minimize climate-related risks to the financial sector."

Trading scandal

The chair's renomination comes at a time of tumult on the Board of Governors and a trading scandal that had threatened to block Powell from being picked for a second term.

The Fed recently unveiled sweeping changes to its ethics practices in response to the scandal about personal stock trading by then-regional Fed Presidents Robert Kaplan and Eric Rosengren, who led the Dallas and Boston Feds, respectively. Both Kaplan and Rosengren announced early retirements amid criticism about their trades.

Powell, a Republican, was nominated to the Fed's Board of Governors by then-President Barack Obama. He was elevated to chair by then-President Donald Trump in November 2017 to succeed Janet Yellen, who is now Biden's treasury secretary. His term as a member of the Board of Governors doesn't expire until January 2028.

He has been leading a widespread emergency market rescue in response to the economic crisis that followed the coronavirus pandemic.

Though the US has made considerable gains -- its economy beat expectations and added 531,000 jobs in October -- there are still millions of people sitting on the sidelines of a tight labor market.

拜登提名杰罗姆鲍威尔为美联储主席

纽约（美国有线电视新闻网）总统乔拜登周一正式宣布，他打算提名杰罗姆鲍威尔担任美联储主席连任，并提名莱尔布雷纳德担任美联储副主席。

鲍威尔的四年任期已于 2 月结束，总统面临一个关键决定，即是否让由共和党人任命的鲍威尔担任政府最重要的经济政策工作。

在消费者价格上涨、通胀和供应链危机引起的短缺成为白宫迫切关注的问题之际，人们更加关注总统将选择谁来领导国家中央银行系统。

白宫将鲍威尔在大流行的经济动荡中的“稳定领导”作为做出这一决定的原因。鲍威尔领导的美联储在 2020 年 3 月和 2020 年 4 月采取了一系列前所未有的措施，帮助确保 Covid 衰退不会演变成全面萧条。

白宫在一份声明中表示，经济复苏“证明了总统的经济议程取得了成功，也证明了鲍威尔主席和美联储采取果断行动，以缓解大流行的影响并恢复美国经济。回到正轨。”

拜登在一份声明中表达了他对布雷纳德和鲍威尔的“完全信任”。

“我相信，鲍威尔主席和布雷纳德博士对保持低通胀、稳定价格和提供充分就业的关注将使我们的经济比以往任何时候都更加强大。他们还共同深信，需要采取紧急行动来解决这个问题。气候变化带来的经济风险，并领先于我们金融体系中出现的风险，”拜登说。

前路艰难

假设他得到参议院的确认，鲍威尔在他担任美联储主席的第二个任期内将面临非常具有挑战性的局面。

美国正努力应对数十年来的首次通胀恐慌，部分经济领域仍因本世纪最严重的流行病而伤痕累累，美联储的信誉因交易丑闻而受到质疑。

尽管鲍威尔似乎用严格的新道德规则扑灭了内幕交易丑闻，但通胀似乎是美联储未来几个月面临的最棘手的障碍。

直到最近，美联储一直牢牢踩在踏板上，以最低的利率和大规模的债券购买计划刺激美国经济和金融市场。尽管通货膨胀正在飙升，招聘正在蓬勃发展，而且房地产市场可以说比以往任何时候都更热。

尽管管理通胀是美联储的责任，但对拜登而言，由于选民对经济更加担忧，近几个月来他的民意调查数据受到打击，因此受到了冲击。

“所有美国人都感受到通货膨胀，”明尼阿波利斯联储前主席纳拉亚娜·科切拉科塔告诉 CNN。 “拜登说，‘我相信我在美联储领导下的政治前途。我相信他们能控制通胀。'”

通过让鲍威尔掌权，白宫表示支持央行的观点，即通胀是一种暂时现象，尽管持续时间比美联储预期的要长。

但几乎没有证据表明拜登正在认真考虑一位对通胀更为激进的美联储主席。最终没有获得最高职位的布雷纳德的货币政策观点或多或少与鲍威尔一致。

“这不像布雷纳德是一只隐形鹰，”科切拉科塔说。

事实上，高盛周一在鲍威尔消息公布后表示，它继续预计美联储只会从 7 月开始逐步加息。

拜登为什么选择鲍威尔

通过坚持鲍威尔，美联储选择了连续性和可确认性。鲍威尔不仅得到了共和党和温和民主党的支持，在华尔街也备受尊重，投资者对他的沟通策略也很满意。

更换新面孔可能会给确认过程增加不确定性，这可能会扰乱市场。而且，这将增加本已艰巨的任务的复杂性，即让对美联储放松紧急政策感到紧张的投资者放心。

BTIG 政策研究主管艾萨克·博尔坦斯基 (Isaac Boltansky) 表示：“经过异常漫长的审议阶段，白宫最终做出了最安全的选择。” “鲍威尔的选择提供了市场一直赞赏的领导力连续性，应该通过快速且相对轻松的确认过程让白宫取得胜利。”

通过选择鲍威尔，拜登还发出了一个关于独立美联储重要性的强烈信号，这一规范在特朗普时代受到了攻击。

鲍威尔与布雷纳德

据美国有线电视新闻网此前报道，拜登最近在白宫会见了鲍威尔和美联储理事布雷纳德，他在权衡他的决定。如果总统决定反对鲍威尔​​连任，布雷纳德被视为主要竞争者。

“这是一个很好的决定，”前达拉斯联储主席理查德·费舍尔告诉 CNN。 “虽然莱尔布雷纳德是一位最有能力的经济学家，但在伊丽莎白沃伦等进步参议员的压力下任命她会发出一个信号，表明美联储已被公然政治化，不可挽回地损害其独立声誉。”

鲍威尔遭到了一些进步的民主党人的强烈反对，他们批评他在金融监管方面的记录。

马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白沃伦在最近的参议院听证会上表示，鲍威尔是“领导美联储的危险人物”，他“经常投票决定解除对华尔街的管制”。她表示，在鲍威尔的领导下，共和党在美联储的多数席位可能“再次将经济推向金融悬崖”。

沃伦周一在一份声明中说：“我反对杰罗姆鲍威尔主席的连任已不是什么秘密，我将投票反对他。” “我将支持总统提名 Lael Brainard 为副主席。鲍威尔在监管、气候和道德方面的失败使得监督副主席的空缺职位变得至关重要。这个职位必须由一个经过验证的强大监管机构来填补严格而有效的执法记录——而且需要迅速完成。”

前明尼阿波利斯联储主席 Kocherlakota 同意，近年来联储已经取消了许多为防止 2008 年金融危机重演而采取的保护措施。

“我强烈地认为我们需要对那条路线进行修正，”Kocherlakota 说。

布雷纳德在华尔街的态度要强得多，他投票反对美联储近年来采取的一些放松管制措施。

然而，拜登最终决定不提名布雷纳德来填补监督职位的空缺副主席，这将使她负责监督华尔街。

但一些关键的民主党选区，例如有组织的劳工，已经表示支持他。鲍威尔在 2018 年以压倒性优势赢得了参议院的确认。

一些进步人士还指责鲍威尔在应对气候危机方面做得不够。

民主党参议员谢尔顿怀特豪斯在一份声明中表示，他对拜登选择让鲍威尔掌管美联储感到“失望”。 “我真诚地希望，如果得到证实，鲍威尔将重新评估他过去反对利用美联储的监管工具将金融部门与气候相关的风险降至最低的反对意见。”

交易丑闻

主席的重新提名是在理事会动荡和贸易丑闻威胁阻止鲍威尔被选中连任之际进行的。

美联储最近公布了对其道德实践的彻底改变，以应对分别领导达拉斯和波士顿联邦储备银行的时任区域联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰 (Robert Kaplan) 和埃里克·罗森格伦 (Eric Rosengren) 的个人股票交易丑闻。卡普兰和罗森格伦都因交易受到批评而宣布提前退休。

共和党人鲍威尔被时任总统巴拉克奥巴马提名为美联储理事会成员。他于 2017 年 11 月被当时的总统唐纳德特朗普提升为主席，以接替现任拜登财政部长的珍妮特耶伦。他作为理事会成员的任期要到 2028 年 1 月才届满。

他一直在领导广泛的紧急市场救援，以应对冠状病毒大流行之后的经济危机。

尽管美国取得了可观的收益——其经济超出预期并在 10 月份增加了 531,000 个工作岗位——但仍有数百万人在劳动力市场吃紧的情况下持观望态度。