纽约（美国有线电视新闻网）11
月的就业报告乍一看令人失望，但细节表明，复苏进展顺利。
美国劳工统计局周五报告称，11 月美国雇主为经济增加了 210,000 个工作岗位，远低于预期。这是自 2020 年 12 月以来为美国经济增加的最少工作岗位，当时美国经济在新冠病毒病例激增的情况下实际裁员。
经济学家此前预计 11 月创造的就业人数将增加一倍以上，并预测过去两个月经济将继续强劲复苏。
相反，11 月的就业增长更让人想起大流行前的经济，当时雇主增加的职位数量较少但稳定，至少从表面上看是这样。
但是，即使 11 月的数字低于预期，今年的就业增加总数仍超过 600 万，“使我们走上到 2022 年底全面复苏的轨道，”高级经济学家 Elise Gould 表示。经济政策研究所。
也就是说，周五的报告也是在 Omicron 变体已成为全球关注的情况下发布的。更糟糕的是，11 月的工作统计甚至在新变种被确定之前就已经完成。一些经济学家预计，随着企业和员工努力应对新版本的影响，本月招聘可能会放缓。
这让复苏何去何从？
除了标题数字之外，周五的报告确实包含了几条好消息。失业率降至 4.2%，创下大流行时期的新低。
而在整个复苏过程中一直相对低迷的美国劳动力参与率微升至 61.8%，为 2020 年 3 月以来的最高水平。
虽然周五的主要数据乍一看显然令人失望，但美国经济在过去三个月中增加了超过 100 万个工作岗位，表明复苏仍在继续。
PNC 首席经济学家 Gus Faucher 在谈到过去几个月的数据修正时表示：“最近几个月 BLS 对就业增长的修正一直在向上，而且比正常情况大得多。” “因此，不应以表面价值看待 11 月就业增长放缓。”
Faucher 说，失业率的下降以及参与率的增加是“绝对的好消息”。
“你必须深入了解这些高频月度报告，”一位白宫高级官员告诉 CNN Business。 “我们关注数月的平均值。”
今年，每月平均增加 555,000 个工作岗位。
确实，一个月不是趋势，过去几个月的修正——尤其是夏天——描绘了比政府经济学家描绘的可怕的就业形势更加积极的画面。但 11 月可能是美国在企业和员工消化 Omicron 消息之前增加大量工作岗位的最后最佳机会，一些经济学家认为这可能会暂时搁置招聘。
零售溃败
专业和商业服务业、运输和仓储业、建筑业以及制造业是上个月新增就业岗位最多的行业。
但本应在假期期间膨胀的零售业却失业了。
托马斯写道：“尚不清楚这是季节性问题，还是假期帮助时间的某种转变，但总体而言，就业数据与我们追踪的劳动力市场活动的替代指标不符。”杰富瑞的货币市场经济学家西蒙斯在给客户的一份报告中说。
西蒙斯预计零售或休闲和酒店业的就业人数将增加。后一个部门上个月增加了一些工作岗位，但不是很多。
然而，除去季节性调整，零售业实际上增加了超过 300,000 个工作岗位。这表明假期招聘比正常情况更弱——尤其是在雇主继续努力解决工人短缺问题的情况下——而不是零售商裁员。
总体而言，经济仍比大流行前的水平减少了 390 万个工作岗位。
对于那些有工作的人来说，由于雇主在持续的工人短缺期间试图吸引员工，11 月份的工资继续攀升。平均时薪上涨 8 美分至 31.03 美元，过去 12 个月的涨幅为 4.8%。
高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的经济学家表示，这比 10 月份的工资增长速度有所下降，并且是“自 3 月份以来最慢的月度增速，与劳动力供应限制的连续缓解一致”。
America added a disappointing 210,000 jobs in November. But the details paint a different picture
New York (CNN Business)The November jobs report looked disappointing at first glance, but the details show that the recovery is very much moving along.
US employers added another 210,000 jobs to the economy in November, far fewer than expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. It was the smallest number of jobs added to the US economy since December 2020, when the economy actually shed jobs amid a surge in Covid cases.
Economists had expected more than double the number of jobs created in November, forecasting a continuation of the buoyant economic recovery over the past two months.
Instead, the November jobs gain was more reminiscent of the pre-pandemic economy, when employers added a smaller but steady number of positions, at least on the face of it.
But even with a smaller-than-expected number for November, job gains this year have totaled more than 6 million, "putting us well on track for a full recovery by the end of 2022," according to Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
That said, Friday's report also comes as the Omicron variant has become a global concern. What's worse is that the November jobs tally was completed before the new variant was even identified. Some economists expect hiring might slow this month as businesses and employees grapple with the ramifications of the new variant.
Where does this leave the recovery?
Beyond the headline number, Friday's report did include several pieces of good news. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, a new pandemic-era low.
And America's labor force participation rate, which has remained relatively depressed throughout the recovery, edged up to 61.8%, the highest level since March 2020.
While Friday's main number was decidedly disappointing at first glance, the US economy has added more than 1 million jobs over the past three months, signaling that the recovery continues to move along.
"BLS revisions to job growth in recent months have been upward, and much larger than normal," said PNC Chief Economist Gus Faucher about the data revisions of the past months. "Thus, the slowing in job growth in November should not be taken at face value."
The drop in joblessness together with the increase in participation is "unalloyed good news," Faucher said.
"You've gotta get under the hood of these high frequency monthly reports," a senior White House official told CNN Business. "We focus on the averages over numerous months."
This year, monthly job gains have averaged 555,000.
It's true that one month does not a trend make, and revisions over the past months — the summer in particular — have painted a much more positive picture than the dire jobs situation government economists one portrayed. But November was perhaps America's last best chance to add a robust number of jobs before businesses and employees digested the Omicron news, which some economists believe could put hiring on ice for a bit.
Retail rout
Professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, as well as manufacturing, added the most jobs last month.
But the retail sector, which should be swelling for the holidays, instead lost jobs.
"It is not clear if this is a seasonal issue, or some sort of shift in terms of the timing of holiday help, but overall the payroll data does not match up with the alternative indicators of labor market activity that we track," wrote Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jefferies, in a note to clients.
Simons expected to see either retail or leisure and hospitality payrolls to rise. The latter sector added some jobs, but not many, last month.
However, taking out the seasonal adjustments, the retail sector actually added more than 300,000 jobs. This points to weaker holiday hiring than normal — especially as employers continue to struggle with a shortage of workers — rather than retailers laying people off.
Overall, the economy is still down 3.9 million jobs from its pre-pandemic levels.
For those who are working, wages continued to climb in November as employers are trying to attract staff during the ongoing worker shortage. Average hourly earnings rose by 8 cents to $31.03, putting the increase over the past 12 months at 4.8%.
That's a decrease from the pace of wage gains in October, and "the slowest monthly pace since March, consistent with sequential easing in labor supply constraints," according to economists from Goldman Sachs.
