（美国有线电视新闻网）经过近两年的
Covid 驱动的混乱，摩根大通预测 2022 年将迎来恢复正常和健康危机造成的经济创伤的完全愈合。
摩根大通 (JPM) 首席全球市场策略师 Marko Kolanovic 表示：“我们认为，2022 年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束并恢复到 Covid-19 爆发之前的正常状态的一年。” ，周三在给客户的一份说明中写道。 “这是通过实现广泛的人群免疫力和在人类创造力的帮助下实现的，例如预计将在 2022 年广泛使用的新疗法。”
这家美国最大的银行预计，在健康方面的进展将引发经济“强劲”复苏，其特点是全球流动性的回归以及消费者和企业的强劲支出。
摩根大通预测股市将继续增长，尽管增速放缓。该银行为标准普尔 500 指数设定了 5,050 点的年终目标，较当前水平上涨 8%。
“2021 年，全球经济在复苏和重新开放方面取得了巨大进展，”科拉诺维奇写道。 “但是，由于复苏不均衡、不完整，并且经常被新病毒爆发和恐慌所中断，因此仍有许多工作要做。”
摩根大通指出，尽管有疫苗、自然免疫力和健康限制，但今年 Covid 的“人员伤亡”比去年更大。但它警告说，前方存在障碍，包括中央银行放松宽松货币政策。
科拉诺维奇写道：“随着复苏的进行，市场将开始适应收紧的货币条件，这一过程可能会带来波动，”他补充说，这种转变将成为纳斯达克等估值高昂的市场的“逆风”。
摩根大通确定的其他风险包括欧洲和亚洲的地缘政治紧张局势、围绕高通胀的不确定性以及“迫在眉睫的能源危机”。
虽然花旗集团周二预测美国明年第四季度的平均油价将仅为每桶 59 美元，但摩根大通仍然看好能源，并表示预计到 2022 年底原油价格将达到每桶 86 美元，而世界基准布伦特原油价格将维持在每桶 86 美元的水平。 ，将在 90 美元。
2022 will mark the end of the pandemic and a full economic recovery, JPMorgan says
(CNN)After nearly two full years of Covid-driven chaos, JPMorgan Chase is predicting 2022 will usher in a return to normalcy and a full healing of the economic wounds caused by the health crisis.
"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the Covid-19 outbreak," Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's (JPM)chief global markets strategist, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. "This is warranted by achieving broad population immunity and with the help of human ingenuity, such as new therapeutics expected to be broadly available in 2022."
America's biggest bank expects progress on the health front will spark a "strong" recovery in the economy, marked by a return of global mobility and robust spending by consumers and businesses.
JPMorgan is forecasting continued growth for the stock market, albeit at a slower pace. The bank set a year-end target of 5,050 for the S&P 500, up by 8% from current levels.
"In 2021, economies around the globe made great progress towards recovery and reopening," Kolanovic wrote. "However, much remains to be done as the recovery was uneven, incomplete and often interrupted by new virus outbreaks and scares."
Despite vaccines, natural immunity and health restrictions, the "human toll" of Covid has been greater this year than last, JPMorgan noted. But it cautions that there are obstacles ahead, including the unwinding of easy money policies from central banks.
"As the recovery runs its course, markets will begin adjusting to tighter monetary conditions, a process that will likely inject volatility," Kolanovic wrote, adding that this shift will be a "headwind" for richly-valued markets like the Nasdaq.
Other risks identified by JPMorgan include geopolitical tensions in Europe and Asia, uncertainties around high inflation and a "looming energy crisis."
While Citigroup predicted Tuesday that US oil prices will average just $59 a barrel in the fourth quarter of next year, JPMorgan remains bullish on energy, and said it expects crude will stand at $86 a barrel at the end of 2022 and Brent, the world's benchmark, will be at $90.
