纽约(美国有线电视新闻网)美国上个月大流行时期的高价格上涨依然活跃,当时通胀的一项关键指标攀升至
1982 年 6 月以来的最高水平。
美国劳工统计局周五报告称,在截至 11 月的 12 个月中,未经季节性调整的消费者价格通胀上涨了 6.8%。
剔除食品和能源的价格往往更不稳定,同期通胀率上升了 4.9%,为 1991 年 6 月以来的最高水平。
与上月相比,11 月份价格经季节性调整后上涨 0.8%,低于 10 月份的 0.9%。
剔除食品和能源成本后,11 月份价格上涨 0.5%,也比上月的 0.6% 涨幅略有下降。
总统乔拜登承认价格正在上涨,但补充说“在上个月收集这些数据后的几周内,价格和成本增长正在放缓,尽管没有我们希望的那么快,”根据一份声明。
也就是说,“价格上涨继续挤压家庭预算,”拜登说。 “我们正在应对我们供应链面临的与大流行相关的挑战取得进展,这使得将货物上架的成本更高,我预计未来几周会在这方面取得更多进展。”
这是更贵的东西
几个类别的价格大幅上涨。天然气价格在截至 11 月的一年中上涨了 58.1%,这是自 1980 年 4 月以来的最大涨幅。
追踪食品和能源的价格指数攀升至至少 13 年高位,在 12 个月期间分别上涨了 6.1% 和 33.3%。
与此同时,杂货成本同期上涨 6.4%,为 2008 年 12 月以来的最大涨幅。餐厅食品价格上涨 5.8%,为 1982 年 1 月以来的最大涨幅。
但并非所有东西都变得更贵了。
汽车保险价格在 10 月至 11 月期间下降了 0.8%,娱乐活动和通讯的价格指数也下降了 0.2%。
经济学家预计明年价格压力会减弱,但警告说这个过程将是缓慢的,尤其是在考虑 12 个月的通胀时。
“我们预计这种情况将持续到 2022 年初,届时我们预计定价将达到或接近 7.3%,然后成本开始长期回落至 2%,”RSM 首席经济学家乔·布鲁苏埃拉斯 (Joe Brusuelas) 在给客户的一份报告中表示。
美国人感觉如何
由于家庭预算紧张,过去几个月的价格飙升有时会打压消费者情绪。
但根据密歇根大学的一份报告,12 月份消费者信心的初步数据实际上显示乐观情绪有所上升。
消费者信心出现了意外的增长,尽管幅度很小。重新乐观的核心是对未来一年工资上涨的预期。对于收入分配最低的三分之一来说尤其如此,预计收入将增长 2.9%——这是该群体自 1981 年以来的最大预期收益。
消费者调查首席经济学家理查德科廷说:“这表明工资价格螺旋正在出现,可能会在未来几年推高通胀。”
与失业相比,消费者仍然认为通货膨胀对国家来说是更严重的问题。
这对美联储意味着什么
周五的数据也让美联储明显计划加快其在大流行时期的刺激计划回滚的计划更加可信。
11 月底,美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔在听证会上告诉国会“经济非常强劲,通胀压力很高,因此在我看来,考虑结束我们的资产购买步伐是合适的......也许几个月早点。”
随着价格再次飙升,似乎没有什么能阻碍央行在下周的会议上宣布更快的缩减利率。
道明证券的宏观策略师表示:“这些数据增加了美联储官员在下周联邦公开市场委员会会议上变得更加鹰派的理由。”
也就是说,策略师预计,随着重新开放、财政刺激和供应链挑战带来的价格上涨开始消退,未来一年通胀将放缓。
A key inflation measure rose to a 39-year high last month
New York (CNN Business)America's high pandemic-era price hikes were alive and kicking last month, when a key measure of inflation climbed to a level not seen since June 1982.
Consumer price inflation rose by 6.8% without seasonal adjustments over the 12 months ended November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
Stripping out food and energy, the prices of which tend to be more volatile, inflation rose 4.9% over the same period — the highest level since June 1991.
Looking at November compared to the previous month, prices increased 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis, less than the 0.9% increase in October.
Without food and energy costs, prices rose 0.5% in November, also a slight decrease from the 0.6% rise in the prior month.
President Joe Biden acknowledged prices were rising but added "developments in the weeks after these data were collected last month show that price and cost increase are slowing, although not as quickly as we'd like," according to a statement.
That said, "price increases continue to squeeze family budgets," Biden said. "We are making progress on pandemic related challenges to our supply chain which make it more expensive to get goods on shelves, and I expect more progress on that in the weeks ahead."
Here's what got more expensive
Several categories saw significant price increases. Gas prices jumped 58.1% over the year ending in November, the biggest jump since April 1980.
The price indexes tracking food and energy climbed to at least 13-year highs, having risen 6.1% and 33.3% over the 12-month period.
Meanwhile, groceries cost 6.4% more over the same period, the largest increase since December 2008. Food prices in restaurants jumped 5.8%, the biggest rise since January 1982.
But not everything got more expensive.
Car insurance prices fell 0.8% between October and November, as did the price index for recreational activities and communication, which both declined 0.2%.
Economists expect price pressure to abate next year but have warned this process will be slow, especially when looking at inflation on the 12-month horizon.
"We expect this to continue until early in 2022 where we expect pricing to reach at or near 7.3% before costs start their long descent back towards 2%," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, in a note to clients.
How are Americans feeling
The price spikes of the past months have at times weighed on consumer sentiment as family's budgets were crunched.
But preliminary data for consumer sentiment in December actually found an uptick in optimism, according to a report from the University of Michigan.
Consumer sentiment posted an unexpected, albeit small, increase. At the core of the renewed optimism was the expectation of higher wages in the year ahead. This was particularly true for the lowest third of the income distribution, where a 2.9% increase to incomes is expected — the largest expected gain for that group since 1981.
"This suggests an emerging wage-price spiral that could propel inflation higher in the years ahead," said Richard Curtin, chief economist of the Surveys of Consumers.
Consumers still think inflation is the more serious problem for the nation compared with unemployment.
What this means for the Fed
Friday's data is also lending more credence to the Federal Reserve's apparent plan to speed up the rollback of its pandemic-era stimulus program.
In late November, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress during a hearing "the economy is very strong and inflationary pressures are high, and it is therefore appropriate in my view to consider wrapping up the taper of our asset purchases ... perhaps a few months sooner."
And with another spike in prices under the belt, it seems nothing is standing in the way of the central bank announcing a faster rate of tapering during next week's meeting.
"The data add to the case for Fed officials to turn more hawkish at the FOMC meeting next week," said macro strategists at TD Securities.
That said, the strategists expect inflation to slow in the year ahead as the price boosts from the reopening, fiscal stimulus and supply chain challenges begin to fade.