美国 11 月的消费价格继续飙升，加剧了美国人对通胀上升的焦虑

美国劳工统计局的数据显示，上个月消费者价格指数上涨了 6.8%，为 1982 年 6 月以来的最高水平。

在数据公布之前，拜登政府已经在努力消除对另一个高读数的担忧。 10 月份，年度通货膨胀率上升 6.2%，为 30 年来的最大增幅。

“明天，我们将收到一份关于消费者价格的报告，专家预计该报告将再次上涨，部分原因是能源价格和二手车价格，”总统乔拜登周四在一份声明中说。 “幸运的是，在收集明天的通胀报告数据后的几周内，能源价格已经下降。全国加油站的汽油价格已经开始下降，现在 20 个州的实际加油站价格低于 20 年的水平。平均数。”

还有另一个变化：自从收集数据以来，Omicron 变体已经进入图片。

经济学家目前陷入关于该变体将如何影响通胀前景的辩论中。在很大程度上取决于压力的严重程度以及政府是否决定实施更严厉的规则来限制其传播。但是有几个重要的因素需要考虑。

对商品需求的影响：如果人们再次开始更多地呆在家里，他们可能会在外出就餐和理发等服务上花费更少的钱，而在电子产品和家居用品等商品上花费更多。

对商品的需求已经很旺盛，导致供应链问题成为通货膨胀的关键因素。在这方面，Omicron 可能会让事情变得更糟。

对商品供应的影响：阻止供应链恢复正常的另一个因素是越南等国家的工厂关闭。

如果世界各地的工厂因担心 Omicron 或感染增加而被迫停产或减产，这也可能会加剧通货膨胀。

对能源需求的影响：另一方面是能源需求。随着经济的重新开放，燃料的购买量猛增。能源成本的飙升在今年秋季更广泛的价格上涨中发挥了重要作用。

如果限制恢复和旅行减少，那将缓解对能源的需求，从而帮助降低通胀。

凯投宏观集团首席经济学家尼尔·希林本周在给客户的一份报告中写道：“能源价格受到的冲击意味着，欧美光的主要浪潮的初步影响可能是通货紧缩而不是通胀。”

大局：如果华尔街对 11 月的通胀数据没有强烈反应，这可能就是原因。展望未来，通胀前景更加不明朗，需要一段时间才能看到情况如何发展。

美元飙升。中国的人民币表现更好

中国正在努力应对经济放缓，但其货币却很少走强。即使美联储准备加息，人民币今年的表现也优于美元。那么什么给呢？

最新消息：我的 CNN Business 同事 Laura He 报道，根据追踪人民币兑其他 24 种货币表现的指数，人民币在 2021 年飙升了 8% 以上。根据该指标，它仅比 2015 年 11 月创下的历史高点低 0.3%。

人民币兑美元汇率也有所上涨。今年兑美元汇率上涨了 2.4% 至 2.8%——这取决于它是在中国还是离岸交易。目前，这两个版本兑美元汇率均处于三年或更长时间以来的最高水平。

位于俄亥俄州的资本市场交易公司 Bannockburn Global Forex 的董事总经理马克·钱德勒 (Marc Chandler) 表示，进入 12 月，人民币今年的涨幅是“世界上最好的”。

分解：麦格理集团中国经济主管拉里胡说，人民币飙升的主要原因是流入中国的资金量，这主要归功于出口激增。

近几个月来，中国经济受到航运中断和不断加深的房地产危机的打击。尽管如此，出口仍保持良好。根据周二公布的政府统计数据，11 月来自中国的出货量达到近 3260 亿美元，同比增长 22%。

分析师表示，人民币上涨的另一个原因是随着投资者追逐更高的回报，国际上对中国债券的热情。

在雷达上：北京似乎对人民币的快速升值越来越不舒服。中国人民银行周四宣布将外汇准备金率从7%上调至9%，这是今年以来的第二次上调。此举将迫使中国金融机构保留更多外汇储备，并被广泛解读为试图缓和人民币升势。

渣打银行中国宏观战略负责人贝基刘表示：“在我们看来，[人民币] 保持基本稳定 [对] 中国当局来说是可取的。”

埃隆马斯克能加入大辞职吗？

想要更多证据证明大辞职已经影响了美国工人？即使是地球上最富有的人也在考虑离职。

见这里：特斯拉 (TSLA) 首席执行官兼 SpaceX 创始人埃隆马斯克周四晚间发推文称，他“正在考虑辞职”并“成为有影响力的人”。

马斯克是一个臭名昭著的推特巨魔，他说的任何话都应该用一粒（或者一大勺）盐来记录。

但一些投资者——他们之所以支持特斯拉，很大程度上是因为他们认为马斯克是一个有远见的人——可能会认真对待他。这家全球市值最高的汽车制造商的股价在周五盘前交易中下跌，然后反弹。

退一步：尽管辞职的步伐正在放缓，但辞职的美国工人数量仍然很高。 10 月份，有 420 万美国人离职，比 9 月份有所下降。

甚至高层管理人员也已成为趋势的一部分。根据招聘公司 Heidrick & Struggles 的数据，随着公司引进新人才来管理 Covid-19 大流行的复苏，以及过度劳累的高管宣布退休，CEO 更替率在 2021 年上半年猛增。

下一个

11 月消费者物价指数于美国东部时间上午 8:30 发布。美国东部时间上午 10 点对密歇根大学 12 月消费者信心调查进行了初读。

下周即将到来：从美联储到欧洲央行的央行行长将就如何解决通胀问题做出重大决定。

Inflation is soaring. Enter the Omicron variant

London (CNN Business)Consumer prices in the United States continued to surge in November, exacerbating anxiety about rising inflation among Americans.

The consumer price index rose by 6.8% last month, the highest its been since June 1982, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Biden administration was already trying to tamp down worries about another high reading before the data was released. In October, annual inflation rose 6.2%, the largest increase in three decades.

"Tomorrow, we will get a report on consumer prices that experts expect to be elevated again, driven in part by energy prices and used car prices," President Joe Biden said in a statement Thursday. "Fortunately, in the weeks since the data for tomorrow's inflation report was collected, energy prices have dropped. The price of gas at the pump has already begun to fall nationally, and real pump prices in 20 states are now lower than the 20-year average."

There's been another change, too: Since the data was collected, the Omicron variant has entered the picture.

Economists are currently locked in debates about how the variant will affect the inflation outlook. Much depends on the severity of the strain and whether governments decide to implement harsher rules to limit its spread. But there are a few important elements to consider.

Effect on demand for goods: If people start spending more time at home again, they're likely to shell out less money on services like eating out and haircuts and more on goods like electronics and homewares.

Demand for goods is already running hot, contributing to the supply chain issues that have been a key contributor to inflation. On this front, Omicron could make matters worse.

Effects on supply of goods: Another factor that's been stopping supply chains from getting back to normal has been closures of factories in countries like Vietnam.

Should plants around the world be forced to halt or cut production because of fears of Omicron or rising infections, that could also add to inflation.

Effect on demand for energy: On the other side is demand for energy. As economies have reopened, purchases of fuel have soared. The spike in the cost of energy played a major role in broader price increases this fall.

If restrictions return and travel declines, that would ease demand for energy, helping inflation move lower.

"This hit to energy prices means that the initial effect of a major Omicron wave is likely to be disinflationary rather than inflationary," Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients this week.

Big picture: If Wall Street doesn't have a strong reaction to the November inflation data, this is probably why. Looking ahead, the outlook for inflation is murkier, and it will take some time to see how the situation unfolds.

The US dollar has surged. China's yuan is doing even better

China is grappling with a slowing economy, yet its currency has rarely been stronger. The yuan is also outperforming the US dollar this year even as the Fed prepares to hike interest rates. So what gives?

The latest: The Chinese currency has soared more than 8% in 2021, according to an index that tracks the yuan's performance against 24 other currencies, my CNN Business colleague Laura He reports. Based on that gauge, it's just 0.3% short of its previous record high set in November 2015.

The yuan has also gained ground on the dollar. It's risen between 2.4% and 2.8% this year against the greenback — depending on whether it trades in China or offshore. Both versions are now at their highest levels against the dollar in three years or more.

Heading into December, the yuan's gain this year was "the best in the world," said Marc Chandler, managing director for Bannockburn Global Forex, an Ohio-based capital markets trading firm.

Breaking it down: The main reason for the yuan's surge is the amount of money flowing into China, largely thanks to surging exports, said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group.

China's economy has been hit in recent months by shipping disruptions and a deepening property crisis. Even so, exports have held up well. Shipments from China reached nearly $326 billion in November, a 22% jump over the year before, according to government statistics released Tuesday.

Another reason for the yuan's rally, according to analysts, is international enthusiasm for Chinese bonds as investors chase higher returns.

On the radar: Beijing appears increasingly uncomfortable with the yuan's rapid appreciation. The People's Bank of China announced Thursday it would raise the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio to 9% from 7% — the second hike in the ratio this year. The move will force Chinese financial institutions to keep more foreign money in reserve, and has been widely interpreted as an attempt to temper the yuan's rally.

"It is desirable for the [yuan] to stay largely stable [for] the Chinese authorities, in our view," said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank.

Could Elon Musk join the Great Resignation?

Want more proof that the Great Resignation has taken hold of American workers? Even the richest man on Earth is thinking about leaving his job.

See here: Tesla (TSLA) CEO and SpaceX founder Elon Musk tweeted late Thursday that he was "thinking of quitting" his jobs and "becoming an influencer."

Musk is a notorious Twitter troll, and anything he says should be taken with a grain (or perhaps a large spoonful) of salt.

But some investors — who have backed Tesla in large part because they see Musk as a visionary — may be taking him seriously. Shares of the world's most valuable automaker fell in premarket trading Friday before bouncing back.

Step back: The number of US workers who are quitting their jobs remains elevated, though the pace of resignations is easing. In October, 4.2 million Americans left their positions, a decline from September.

Even top executives have been part of the trend. CEO turnover jumped in the first half of 2021 as companies brought in new talent to manage the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and overworked execs announced retirements, according to recruiting firm Heidrick & Struggles.

Up next

The Consumer Price Index for November posts at 8:30 a.m. ET. The first reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey for December follows at 10 a.m. ET.

Coming next week: Central bankers from the Federal Reserve to the European Central Bank will make big decisions about how to address inflation.