纽约市的租赁市场正在复苏。
根据经纪公司 Douglas Elliman 和房地产评估公司 Miller Samuel 的最新租金报告，11 月曼哈顿的净有效租金中位数比去年上涨了 16.7%。这是连续第二个月创纪录的利率。
“我们在很多方面都感到震惊，我们忙得连想都不敢想，”道格拉斯·埃利曼 (Douglas Elliman) 的首席执行官斯科特·德金 (Scott Durkin) 周四在 CNBC 的“全球交易所”上说。
报告发现，其他记录在 11 月份被打破。优惠的市场份额连续第四个月以创纪录的速度下降，这表明房东提供奖金（例如免费月份或免除费用）以吸引潜在租户的必要性降低。报告称，曼哈顿的空置率也创下了历史新低。
报告称，在布鲁克林和皇后区，新签订的租约均达到十多年来的最高水平。在过去的 15 个月里，布鲁克林的新租约签署量尤其增加。
根据道格拉斯·埃利曼 (Douglas Elliman) 和米勒·塞缪尔 (Miller Samuel) 的数据，整个城市的净有效租金中位数实际上同比增长了 22.8%。他们表示，虽然这是十多年来的最高增幅，但仍略低于 2019 年的水平。
“我认为，如果你剥开洋葱，你会注意到租赁市场如此强劲，因为我们的库存严重短缺，”德金告诉 CNBC。 “库存短缺推高了租赁需求。”
报告显示，不同价位的建筑正在以不同的速度复苏，因为高端建筑的租金增长速度快于低端市场。
根据道格拉斯·埃利曼 (Douglas Elliman) 和米勒·塞缪尔 (Miller Samuel) 的说法，与下半部分相比，11 月市场上半部分的租金继续攀升。在曼哈顿，15,000 美元以上租金的市场份额实际上升至十多年来的最高水平。
“在许多情况下，豪宅租金——因此在 [10,000 美元] 或 15,000 美元以北的任何东西——都增加了近 30%，”德金说。 “而且有些人正在看不见这些景象。”
Miller Samuel 总裁兼首席执行官乔纳森·米勒 (Jonathan Miller) 将这种模式归因于就业市场的不平衡复苏。
“这个市场是我职业生涯中见过的最两极分化的市场，”米勒在接受 CNBC 电话采访时说。 “对于低收入者来说，大流行造成的经济损失比中上层要严重得多。这反映在上半场与下半场的实力上。”
例如，在曼哈顿，门卫与非门卫建筑的租金差距正在扩大，在该市场上，它们的数量大致相等。报告显示，门卫建筑的租金中位数与去年相比上涨了 27%，与 2019 年相比实际上上涨了 2%。相比之下，无门卫建筑的租金同比增长 11%，但仍低于两年前的水平。
“随着价格的上涨，我们看到租赁活动和定价有所增加，”米勒说。 “这与大流行前相反。顶部柔软，向下移动时更紧。现在我们看到了相反的情况。”
尽管出现了这些创纪录的增长，但杜尔金表示，他并不担心市场总体上变得无法进入。杜尔金还表示，纽约并没有表现出任何异常趋势。
“纽约的生活成本仍然低于旧金山，在某些情况下是洛杉矶。因此，对于我们在纽约看到的情况，这里没有连锁反应，”他说。
米勒还表示，就人口密度而言，这座城市并没有恢复正常，而且可能永远不会恢复正常。 “在曼哈顿，办公大楼有 35% 已满，因此 65% 是空的，”他说。 “这必须在未来几年内解决。”
New York City rents jump 22.8% in November, as the rental market bounces back
The New York City rental market is regaining strength.
In November, the net effective median rent for Manhattan rose 16.7% compared with last year, according to the most recent rental report from brokerage firm Douglas Elliman and real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel. That's the second-straight month of record rates.
“We're in many ways shocked, and we've been too busy to even think about it,” Scott Durkin, CEO of Douglas Elliman, said Thursday on CNBC's “Worldwide Exchange.”
Other records were broken in the month of November, the report found. The market share of concessions fell at a record rate for the fourth consecutive month, demonstrating that it's become less necessary for landlords to offer bonuses — such as free months or removing fees — in order to entice prospective tenants. Vacancy rates in Manhattan also hit another all-time low rate, according to the report.
In both Brooklyn and Queens, new lease signings rose to their highest levels in more than a decade, according to the report. Brooklyn, in particular, has seen new lease signings rise for the past 15 months.
Net effective median rent for the city as a whole has actually increased by 22.8% on a year-over-year basis, according to Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. While that is the highest increase in more than a decade, it's still slightly below 2019 levels, they said.
“I think if you peel back the onion, you're noticing the rental market is so strong because we have a severe inventory shortage,” Durkin told CNBC. “Inventory shortage pushed up the need for rentals.”
Buildings across price points are recovering at different speeds, the report shows, as higher-end buildings have seen their rents increasing faster than the lower end of the market.
Rents at the top half of the market continued to climb in November, compared with the lower half, according to Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. In Manhattan, the market share of rentals above $15,000 actually rose to its highest in over a decade.
“In many cases, the luxury rentals — so anything north of [$10,000] or $15,000 — have increased almost 30%,” Durkin said. “And some people are taking these sight unseen.”
Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel, attributes this pattern to an uneven resurgence in the job market.
“This market is the most polarized I've ever seen in my career,” Miller said in a phone interview with CNBC. “The economic damage caused by the pandemic was much more severe for lower-wage earners than mid- and upper-tier. That's reflected in the strength of the upper half vs. the lower half.”
In Manhattan, for example, the gap between rents is widening for doorman vs. non-doorman buildings, which are roughly equal in number in that market. The report shows that median rent for doorman buildings rose 27% compared with last year and is actually up 2% compared with 2019 rates. In contrast, rent for non-doorman buildings saw an 11% year-over-year increase yet is still below the rate seen two years ago.
“We're seeing an increase in leasing activity and pricing as you move higher in price,” Miller said. “That's the inverse of pre-pandemic. It was soft at the top, tighter as you move lower. Now we're seeing the opposite of that.”
Despite these record increases, Durkin said he isn't worried about the market becoming inaccessible overall. Durkin also said that New York specifically isn't showing any abnormal trends.
“New York is still cheaper to live in than San Francisco and in some cases Los Angeles. So there's no ripple effect here on what we're seeing in New York,” he said.
Miller also said the city is not back to normal in terms of population density and that it may never be. “In Manhattan, office towers are 35% full, so 65% empty,” he said. “That has to be wrestled with over the next few years.”
