BuzzFeed
在交易的第一周下跌了 39%，收于每股 6.07 美元，这对数字媒体公司在公开市场上的前景来说是一个不吉利的开端。
但即使其估值令人失望，Buzzfeed 的首次亮相也为同行提供了他们以前没有的东西：公开市场估值比较。
“数字媒体并没有真正的补偿，”BuzzFeed 首席执行官乔纳·佩雷蒂 (Jonah Peretti) 在接受 CNBC 采访时表示。 “就触及千禧一代或 Z 世代受众的数字媒体而言，我们是唯一公开的媒体。”
如果 BuzzFeed 的股价最终暴涨，Vox Media、Vice Media、Group Nine 和 Bustle Digital Group 等同行可能会再次尝试自己上市。今年早些时候，所有四人都考虑了这条路线，但严重程度各不相同。但是，当特殊目的收购公司 (SPAC) 在 4 月左右失去投资吸引力时，该行业就停止了上市计划。
只有 BuzzFeed 成功了，而且进展不是特别顺利。最初向公司的 SPAC 投入 2.88 亿美元现金的投资者撤回了其中的 94%，而不是作为 BuzzFeed 的股东继续前进。
“我们最终与许多公开市场投资者进行了交谈，他们说我们不会再投资 SPAC，但我们仍然有兴趣与您会面，所以当您公开时我们会知道您是谁， ”佩雷蒂说。
Bustle Digital Group 首席执行官 Bryan Goldberg 表示，BuzzFeed 的关键水平将是每股 15 美元。以每股 15 美元计算，BuzzFeed 的市值约为 22.5 亿美元。这接近四倍于收入的交易倍数。 BuzzFeed 在 2021 年上半年创造了 1.61 亿美元的收入，并在今年早些时候收购了 Complex Media，在前六个月带来了 5300 万美元的收入。
对 BuzzFeed 未来前景的信心可能会为整合的车轮加油。 BuzzFeed 需要外界对其股权的信任，才能将其用作可行的收购货币。 Goldberg 说，如果 BuzzFeed 能够稳定地保持 4 倍的收入倍数，卖家就会觉得他们得到了一个公平的价格。
“4 倍的收入应该是默认值，”戈德伯格说。 “但可能需要六到八个月才能到达那里。”
戈德伯格说，第四季度的数字广告收入数字不会很好。他说，供应链中断导致广告支出受到抑制。这可能会给 BuzzFeed 的股票增加压力。他说，当投资者可以自由出售时，投资者的六个月禁售期也可能导致抛售热潮。
戈德伯格说：“我对第四季度和 2022 年的数字广告销售情况有特别的了解。” “我认为数字广告将在 2021 年第四季度表现不佳。但我认为 2022 年将是晴朗的天空。”
重新校准仍然有帮助
即使 BuzzFeed 的价值没有飙升，数字媒体公司也将能够将其用作一个行业中没有这种产品的有力比较。同行可能无法上市，但 BuzzFeed 不惜任何代价的稳定都会让行业了解公司的实际价值。
“在过去的五年里，数字媒体因缺乏一家上市公司而受到影响，”戈德伯格说。
据知情人士透露，在此期间，BuzzFeed、Vox、Vice 和 Group Nine 以各种组合方式相互进行断断续续的合并谈判。以高估值筹集资金——Vox Media 10 亿美元，BuzzFeed 17 亿美元，Vice Media 57 亿美元——这些公司需要扩大规模，以向公众投资者和潜在收购者证明他们可以与谷歌和 Facebook 竞争广告收入。
行业整合受到两个因素的阻碍：价值共识和创始人自我。
在没有公开市场比较的情况下，设定估值是一种信念的飞跃。 Vice Media 一直是夸大私人估值的典型代表。虽然 Vice 在 2019 年的估值为 36 亿美元，但由于 SPAC 投资者对该公司兴趣不大，它今年尝试上市，但未能成功。在没有可行的退出策略时评估自己是一种毫无意义的练习——你可以说你的房子价值 2.78 亿美元，但这并不意味着有人会支付这笔钱。
也许 BuzzFeed 不能被用作每家数字媒体公司的精确代理，但它可能足以使私人交易更可行。
第二个问题更难解决，因为几乎所有主要数字媒体初创公司的领导者都希望成为整合者，而不是被其他人经营的企业集团所吸引。
BuzzFeed 现在公开了，表示将开始推动整个行业。但据知情人士透露，整合的速度将取决于负责人的个性。
知情人士表示，主要的数字媒体公司认为他们在收购和整合公司方面拥有特殊的专业知识，因为收购讨论是私下进行的，因此不愿透露姓名。
Vox Media 于 2019 年 9 月收购了纽约杂志的所有者 New York Media。 Vice Media 几天后宣布以 4 亿美元收购 Refinery29。一周后，Group Nine 宣布与 PopSugar 达成交易。近年来，Bustle Media Group 收购了多家媒体公司，包括 Gawker、Mic、Nylon、The Outline 和 Flavorpill。戈德堡告诉 CNBC，他计划成为买家，而不是卖家。
作为其 SPAC 合并的一部分，BuzzFeed 于 2020 年收购了 HuffPost，并以 3 亿美元收购了 Complex Networks。
然后是一大批可能不会合作的新贵。像 Axios 和 The Information 这样的公司没有像他们的风险投资同行那样对投资者承担巨大的义务，并且正在获得稳定的订阅收入。据知情人士透露，他们的创始人目前对自身商业模式的优势不感兴趣。像 Punchbowl 和 Puck 这样的初创公司员工很少，如果它们能够通过订阅费维持盈利，那么它们可能几乎不需要出售。
“BuzzFeed 仍然有很多仇恨者，”一位不愿透露姓名的数字媒体高管表示，以避免可能的报复。
尽管如此，许多相同的竞争对手现在也支持 BuzzFeed 的成功。如果 BuzzFeed 的股价走高并且管理层赢得华尔街的青睐，他们就有更多的选择。
“我从其他公司高管那里听说：我们支持你，”佩雷蒂说。
如果股价没有恢复，Peretti 将专注于经营一家盈利的公司，并向华尔街证明数字媒体的价值。
与此同时，戈德堡将购买 BuzzFeed 的股票。
“我刚刚以6美元的价格买了一大堆BuzzFeed的股票，”戈德堡说。“如果它再低一点，我真的会支持这个股票。”
Why BuzzFeed's poor debut doesn't necessarily spell bad news for new media
BuzzFeed fell 39% in its first week of trading, closing at $6.07 per share, an inauspicious start for the prospects of digital media companies on public markets.
But even if its valuation is disappointing, Buzzfeed's debut gives peers something they didn't have before: a public market valuation comparison.
“Digital media doesn't really have comps,” BuzzFeed Chief Executive Officer Jonah Peretti told CNBC in an interview. “As far as digital media that reaches a millennial or Gen Z audience, we're the only one that's public.”
If BuzzFeed shares eventually skyrocket, peers such as Vox Media, Vice Media, Group Nine and Bustle Digital Group may try again to go public themselves. All four considered that route earlier this year, with varying degrees of seriousness. But when special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, lost their investment appeal around April, the industry pumped the brakes on plans to go public.
Only BuzzFeed succeeded, and it didn't go particularly smoothly. Investors that originally committed $288 million in cash to the company's SPAC pulled back 94% of it, instead of moving forward as BuzzFeed shareholders.
“We ended up talking to a lot of public market investors who said we aren't going to invest in SPACs anymore, but we're still interested in meeting with you, so we get to know who are you when you're public,” Peretti said.
The key level for BuzzFeed will be $15 per share, said Bustle Digital Group CEO Bryan Goldberg. At $15 per share, BuzzFeed's market capitalization would be about $2.25 billion. That approaches a trading multiple of four times revenue. BuzzFeed generated $161 million in revenue in the first half of 2021 and acquired Complex Media earlier this year, which brought in $53 million in the first six months.
Confidence in BuzzFeed's future prospects may grease the wheels for consolidation. BuzzFeed will need outsider faith in its equity to use it as viable currency for acquisitions. If BuzzFeed can hold steady at a 4x revenue multiple, sellers will feel they're getting a just price, Goldberg said.
“4x revenue should be the default,” Goldberg said. “But it may take six to eight months to get there.”
Fourth-quarter digital advertising revenue numbers won't be good, Goldberg said. Supply chain disruptions have led to curbed advertising spending, he said. That may add pressure on BuzzFeed shares. A six-month lockup period for investors may also lead to a rush of selling when investors are free to sell, he said.
“I have a particularly informed view of what digital advertising sales are going to look like in the fourth quarter and in 2022,” Goldberg said. “I think digital advertising is going to have a rough Q4 2021. But I think 2022 is going to be clear skies.”
Recalibration can still help
Even if BuzzFeed doesn't surge in value, digital media companies will be able to use it as a firm comparison in an industry that hasn't had one. Peers may not be able to go public, but BuzzFeed's stabilization at any price will give the industry a sense of what companies are actually worth.
“For the past five years, digital media has suffered from the absence of a publicly traded company,” Goldberg said.
During that time, BuzzFeed, Vox, Vice and Group Nine have held on-and-off merger talks with each other, in various combinations, according to people familiar with the matter. Having raised money at lofty valuations — $1 billion for Vox Media, $1.7 billion for BuzzFeed, and a whopping $5.7 billion for Vice Media — the companies need scale to prove to public investors and potential acquirers they can compete with Google and Facebook for advertising dollars.
Industry consolidation has been blocked by two factors: Agreement on value and founder ego.
Without a public market comparison, setting valuations have been leaps of faith. Vice Media has been the posterchild for inflated private valuation. While Vice valued itself at $3.6 billion in 2019, it tried and failed to go public this year when SPAC investors had little interest in the company. Valuing yourself when there are no viable exit strategies is a meaningless exercise — you can say your house is worth $278 million, but that doesn't mean someone will pay that amount.
Maybe BuzzFeed can't be used as an exact proxy for every digital media company, but it's probably enough of an apples-to-apples comparison to make private-to-private deals more feasible.
The second problem is harder to resolve, since the leaders of almost all the major digital media start-ups all want to be the consolidators, rather than getting sucked up into a conglomerate run by somebody else.
Now that it's public, BuzzFeed says it will begin rolling up the industry. But the speed of consolidation will depend on the personalities of those in charge, according to people familiar with the matter.
The major digital media players feel they have particular expertise in acquiring and integrating companies, said the people, who asked not to be named because acquisition discussions have been private.
Vox Media bought New York Media, the owner of New York Magazine, in Sept. 2019. Vice Media announced it bought Refinery29 for $400 million a few days later. A week later, Group Nine announced its deal for PopSugar. Bustle Media Group has bought a number of media companies, including Gawker, Mic, Nylon, The Outline and Flavorpill, in recent years. Goldberg told CNBC he plans to be a buyer, not a seller.
For its part, BuzzFeed acquired HuffPost in 2020 and bought Complex Networks for $300 million as part of its SPAC merger.
Then there's a whole new crop of upstarts who may not play along. Companies like Axios and The Information don't have the outsize obligations to investors that their venture-fattened peers do, and are finding steady subscription revenue. Their founders aren't currently interested in acquisition offers on the strength of their own business models, according to people familiar with the matter. Startups like Punchbowl and Puck, which have few employees, may have little need to sell if they can sustain profitability through subscriber fees.
“BuzzFeed still has a lot of haters,” said one digital media executive, who asked not to be named to avoid possible retribution.
Still, many of those same competitors are now also rooting for BuzzFeed's success. If BuzzFeed shares tick higher and management wins over Wall Street, they've got a lot more options.
“I've heard that from other company executives: We're rooting for you,” Peretti said.
If shares don't recover, Peretti will focus on running a profitable company and proving to Wall Street the value of digital media.
Goldberg, meanwhile, will be buying BuzzFeed shares.
“I just bought a f---ton of BuzzFeed shares at $6.00,” Goldberg said. “If it goes lower, I'll really back up the truck.”
