劳工部的消费者通胀报告显示，物价仍在上涨。
但是，尽管通货膨胀率高达 6.8%，但周五的消费者价格指数报告可能是拜登政府此时所能期望的最好结果。
尽管几乎每个经济学家都预计通胀在可预见的未来将保持高位，但华尔街的一些人在周五的数据发布之前就担心 11 月份的通胀率可能会飙升至 7% 或更高。
一些接受 CNBC 采访的经济学家表示，11 月的报告可能会显示出通胀可能在未来几个月见顶的早期迹象。
美国银行经济学家亚历克斯林表示，虽然现在是停止将通胀称为“暂时性”的时候了，但综合因素使他相信通胀可能会在 3 月或 4 月左右见顶。
“我们的观点是，高峰可能会在明年初的某个时候，可能是第一季度，”林说。 “而我们之所以这么说，很大程度上是由于某种基础效应。正如您从今年早些时候开始的那样，一旦到了 [2021 年 4 月] 左右，核心通货膨胀率就会非常高。”
不过，对于希望在 2022 年中期选举之前扭转选民对经济、总统及其政党的负面看法的白宫来说，这是否为时已晚，还有待观察。
核心问题
核心通胀是对整体价格上涨的更精细的审视，它剔除了经常波动的能源和食品价格的变动。虽然汽油、家庭能源和食品杂货价格对普通美国人很重要，但美联储喜欢关注核心通胀，因为它不受统计的“噪音”野生食品和能源价格波动的影响，可以使模型更加平静。
在 4 月至 6 月期间，核心 CPI 平均每月增长 0.85%——这是自 1980 年代初以来的最快增长——因为数百万美国人希望在夏季之前购买二手车。此后核心数据有所降温，10 月至 11 月期间上涨了 0.53%。
因此，随着那些陡峭的同比比较的出现，林说他怀疑美国经济是否会继续看到通胀继续以同样的速度上升。
“当你进入明年时，问题是：你能重复这些类型的印刷品吗？”林谈到今年春天的核心通胀率。 “在我们看来，这似乎不太可能。”
可以肯定的是，没有人预计通胀会在短期内接近美联储 2% 的目标，有人表示，价格增长可能需要数年时间才能回落到大流行前的水平。
未来几个月仍有几个值得关注的警示信号：占核心 CPI 约 40% 的租金价格继续走高，并助长了全美美国人的生活成本。
11 月份新搬入租约的租金要价年增长率达到 13.9%，而租金价格在 10 月份和 11 月份分别上涨 0.4% 和 0.4%。这些上涨使 11 月份的租金同比上涨 3%，仍低于大流行前的水平，但高于 7 月份的 1.9%。
摩根大通首席经济学家迈克费罗利表示：“我想最值得注意的方面是，你看到一些更持久的成分开始变得更加坚挺。” “最值得注意的是两大租金措施。”
他补充说：“诸如外出食品之类的东西往往非常粘稠，”并指出餐馆和酒吧的价格似乎在上涨。
食品服务行业的价格上涨不应该让人感到意外，因为蛋白质成本的上涨是有据可查的，而经理对厨师、侍应生和其他工人的需求旺盛。
白宫头疼
由于员工希望跟上通货膨胀并利用持续的劳动力短缺，经济学家正在密切关注劳工部每月更新的平均时薪，以了解工资增长的任何迹象。
尽管大多数经济学家表示，Covid-19 大流行是造成持续通胀问题的罪魁祸首，但选民可能会将汽油和杂货价格的持续上涨归咎于白宫。
近几个月来，乔拜登总统的支持率受到影响，受访者继续表示他们对美国经济和通胀感到担忧。
CNBC 最近的全美经济调查显示，拜登的整体支持率稳定在 41% 的低水平。尽管如此，总统的经济支持率下降到 37%，而不支持的比例为 56%，从第二季度调查中的 40% 降至 54%。
如果美国人仍然担心 2022 年 11 月到来的通货膨胀，拜登和民主党同僚可能很难保持对民主党占多数的众议院和以 50 票对 50 票分裂的参议院的控制权。
乐观的理由？
周五，白宫经济顾问塞西莉亚·劳斯 (Cecilia Rouse) 对 CNBC 表示，11 月的通胀数据可能会在明年上半年的通胀减速之前，听起来很乐观。
“我认为未来几个月通胀会下降，”担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席的劳斯在周五的 CPI 发布后表示。
“显然，这将取决于很多事情，”她补充道。 “但随着我们努力为武器接种疫苗，当我们为世界其他地区接种疫苗时，世界各地的经济将会复苏，我们将看到通胀压力得到缓解。”
对通胀缓和可能性的乐观情绪并非民主党独有。
乔治·W·布什政府的财政部官员托尼·弗拉托 (Tony Fratto) 表示，他认为通胀数据符合预期是一件好事。
“我认为在印刷之前，人们担心会得到一个糟糕的惊喜，”他说。 “它达到了预期。”
“有充分的理由相信通胀将在 2022 年放缓。由于财政支持的退出、缩减以及对供应链问题的调整，”他继续说道。 “在六七个月后，我们不会像今天谈论通胀那样谈论通胀。”
通常不喜欢通胀加剧的美国股市似乎摆脱了自 1982 年以来最快的通胀步伐。标准普尔 500 指数在下午的交易中上涨了 0.62%。
Ally Invest 首席投资策略师 Lindsey Bell 表示：“我认为我找到了一些安慰，即使只是一点点，它并没有显着走高，这符合目前的预期。” “我认为，事实上，我们没有一个月一个月地大幅跃升，感觉我们正在稳定下来。”
Hot November inflation report was probably the best the White House could have hoped for at this point
The Labor Department's consumer inflation report showed that prices are still jumping.
But as hot as 6.8% year over year inflation is, Friday's consumer price index report is probably the best the Biden administration could have hoped for at this point.
While virtually every economist expects inflation to stay high for the foreseeable future, some on Wall Street had worried before Friday's data release that inflation could have leaped as high as 7% or more in November.
Some economists who spoke to CNBC suggested that the November report may show early signs that inflation could peak in the next few months.
Bank of America economist Alex Lin said that while it's time to stop calling inflation “transitory,” a combination of factors lead him to believe that inflation could peak around March or April.
“It's our view is that the peak will probably be sometime around early next year, probably the first quarter,” Lin said. “And the reason that we would say that is largely due to kind of the base effects. As you recall from earlier this year, once you got to around April [2021], core inflation was extremely hot.”
Whether that's too late for a White House looking to turn around voters' negative views of the economy, the president and his party before the 2022 midterms remains to be seen, though.
Core issues
Core inflation is a more refined look at overall price increases that strips out movements in the often-volatile prices of energy and food. While gasoline, home energy and grocery prices are important to everyday Americans, the Federal Reserve likes to look at core inflation since it's insulated from the statistical “noise” wild food and energy price fluctuations can bring into a calmer model.
Between April and June, core CPI grew an average 0.85% per month — the fastest increases since the early 1980s — as millions of Americans looked to buy used cars ahead of the summer months. The core print has since cooled off and rose 0.53% between October and November.
So, with those steep year-over-year comparisons coming up, Lin said he's doubtful the U.S. economy will continue to see inflation continue to rise at the same pace.
“As you get into next year, the question is: Can you repeat those types of prints?” Lin said of the core inflation rates seen this spring. “In our view, it seems pretty unlikely.”
To be sure, no one expects inflation to fall anywhere close to the Fed's 2% target anytime soon, and some say it could take years before price growth subsides to its pre-pandemic levels.
There are still several cautionary signs to watch in the months ahead: Rent prices, which comprise some 40% of core CPI, continue to run hot and fuel higher living costs for Americans nationwide.
The annual increase in asking rents for new move-in leases hit 13.9% in November, while rent prices rose 0.4% in October and another 0.4% in November. Those increases brought year-over-year rent inflation to 3% in November, still below its pre-pandemic rate but up from 1.9% in July.
“I guess the most notable aspect is that you're seeing some of the more persistent components start to run a little firmer,” said JPMorgan chief economist Mike Feroli. “Most notably the two major rental measures.”
“Things like food away from home tend to be pretty sticky,” he added, noting that prices at restaurants and bars seem to be on the rise.
Price jumps in the food service industry shouldn't come as a surprise between well-documented inflation in the cost of proteins and fierce demand among managers for cooks, wait staff and other workers.
Headache for the White House
Economists are closely following the Labor Department's monthly update to average hourly earnings for any hints of wage acceleration as employees look to keep up with inflation and take advantage of the ongoing labor shortage.
While most economists say that the Covid-19 pandemic is to blame for the ongoing inflation problems, voters may look to blame the White House for continued increases in the price of gas and groceries.
President Joe Biden's approval ratings have suffered in recent months, and survey respondents continue to say they are worried about the U.S. economy and inflation.
CNBC's most-recent All-America Economic survey showed Biden's overall approval rating stabilizing at a low level of 41%. Still, the president's economic approval sank more deeply underwater at 37% compared to 56% who disapprove, down from 40% approval to 54% in the second quarter survey.
If Americans are still worried about inflation come November 2022, Biden and fellow Democrats could have a tough time retaining control of both the House, which has a narrow Democratic majority, and the Senate, which is split 50-50.
Cause for optimism?
White House economic advisor Cecilia Rouse sounded upbeat on Friday when she told CNBC that the November inflation print could be ahead of inflation deceleration in the first half of next year.
“I think that inflation will come down over the coming months,” Rouse, who serves as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said after's Friday's CPI release.
“Obviously, that will depend on a number of things,” she added. “But as we work hard to get vaccinations in arms, as we vaccinate the rest of the world, the economies around the world will heal and we will see inflation pressures ease.”
The optimism about the odds of inflation moderation wasn't unique to Democrats.
Tony Fratto, a Treasury Department official in the George W. Bush administration, said he thinks it's a good thing that the inflation data met expectations.
“I think before the print, people were worried about getting a bad surprise,” he said. “It nailed the expectations.”
“There are very good reasons to believe that inflation is going to moderate into 2022. Because of the withdrawal of fiscal support, the tapering, the adjustments on the supply chain issues,” he continued. “In six or seven months, we're not going to be talking about inflation the way we're talking about inflation today.”
U.S. stocks, which typically don't like hotter inflation, appeared to shrug off inflation's fastest pace since 1982. The S&P 500 was up 0.62% in afternoon trading.
“I think I find some comfort, even if it's just a little bit, that it hasn't gone significantly higher, that it's in line with expectations right now,” said Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest. “I think that the fact that we're not making significant jumps, month over month, it feels like we're stabilizing.”
