前总统唐纳德特朗普的新媒体事业没有已知的收入或产品。
特朗普媒体与科技集团 (TMTG) 上周发布了一份投资者介绍，该介绍似乎包含错误，并且部分内容似乎是从互联网上复制粘贴的。奇怪的是，一张幻灯片将用户定义为“出差拜访客户的销售代表”，鉴于这是一家媒体公司，而不是销售平台，这一定义毫无意义。
TMTG 即将上任的首席执行官、共和党众议员德文·努内斯 (Devin Nunes) 没有技术或社交媒体方面的商业经验。联邦监管机构正在调查这笔交易，以将媒体风险公之于众。
根据文艺复兴资本的说法，尽管存在这些危险信号，TMTG 至少在一些投资者中引起了巨大的轰动，并实现了超过 100 亿美元的隐含估值。
“这既奇怪又模糊，”塔特尔资本管理有限责任公司首席执行官马修塔特尔告诉 CNN。 “我以前从未见过这样的事情。而且我可能再也不会了。”
由前总统担任主席的 TMTG 同时透露了一项通过与 Digital World Acquisition Corp. 合并上市的交易，该公司是一种被称为 SPAC 或特殊目的收购公司的空壳公司。 SPAC 筹集的资金必须用于收购和引入公共私营公司。从本质上讲，它们是空白支票公司，其存在只是为了寻找合适的合并伙伴。
SPAC 在华尔街变得非常流行，部分原因是与传统的首次公开募股相比，它们可以节省时间和金钱。包括 Alex Rodriguez、Larry Kudlow 和 Shaquille O'Neal 在内的名人都参与了 SPAC，促使监管机构警告投资者不要仅仅因为名人参与而投资 SPAC。
隐含估值超过 110 亿美元
特朗普 SPAC 立即在华尔街掀起了一阵狂潮——尽管对这个新实体知之甚少。 Digital World 的股价在交易宣布后的几天内飙升了 1,657%，然后最终回落。
“这现在是所有 meme 股票中的 meme 股票，”Tuttle 说，他的公司发行 ETF，包括一些专注于 SPAC 市场的 ETF。 “把 1 月和 2 月关于 AMC 和 GameStop 的所有嗡嗡声都放大一百万，这就是现在的情况。”
根据提供以 IPO 为重点的 ETF 和 IPO 前研究的 Renaissance Capital 的数据，基于 Digital World 周一收盘价 50.49 美元，SPAC 交易意味着 TMTG 的估值约为 105 亿美元。该隐含估值包括认股权证、私募以及在 SPAC 合并完成后筹集 10 亿美元的交易。
塔特尔说，他的公司在股价飙升之前曾短暂持有 Digital World 的股票，称估值“有点可怕”和“荒谬”。
Renaissance Capital 的高级 IPO 市场策略师 Matthew Kennedy 表示：“把这当作一场赌博，因为它绝对是。” “似乎很多估值都是基于炒作和唐纳德特朗普的个人受欢迎程度。这不是一个合理的投资理由。”
'这真的没有意义'
特朗普 SPAC 的许多不同寻常的方面之一是，双方最初发布的关于业务基本面的具体信息很少。
上周发布了新文件，但它们提出的问题多于答案。
由 TMTG 提交的 38 张幻灯片包括一个标题为“基础设施”的页面，该页面将用户定义为“具有一个或多个发起活动或与活动交互的角色的人、组织或系统”。它还说，其中包括“出差拜访客户的销售代表”。
这个定义很难与这样一个事实相协调：TMTG 应该是一家保守的媒体公司，而不是一个迎合旅行销售人员的平台。
“这真的没有意义，”肯尼迪说。 “一个更好的用户示例是‘可以访问互联网的美国居民'或‘特朗普前推特账户的 8900 万粉丝之一。'”
撰写政治通讯“大众信息”的贾德·勒格姆 (Judd Legum) 周末在 Twitter 帖子中标记了“用户”的定义。 Legum 指出，基础设施幻灯片上的语言只是“从其他站点剪切和粘贴的”。
事实上，这张幻灯片对数据库服务器的描述与 2016 年在 Techopedia 上最后一次更新的页面上所写的内容相符，Techopedia 是一个包含技术术语词典的网站。负载均衡器的定义与 Citrix 网站页面上列出的内容相匹配。
同样，客户端的定义与 Cloudflare 网站上的定义相匹配。
“换句话说，这家公司不仅没有任何技术基础设施，”勒格姆写道，“甚至连自己的基础设施的幻灯片都懒得写。”
TMTG 没有回应置评请求。
'严重错误'
但这些并不是投资者介绍中唯一的奇怪之处。
Renaissance Capital 策略师 Kennedy 指出，幻灯片 5 显示 PIPE（公共股权的私人投资）可能转换为 1370 万股，尽管其他文件表明最低实际上是 2980 万股。肯尼迪说，同一张幻灯片中的另一行似乎对 TMTG 股东持有的股份数量存在另一个错误。
演示文稿的另一个不同寻常的元素是幻灯片中的幻灯片 21 仅列出了 TMTG 技术团队成员的名字和姓氏首字母。
“我相信他们正在迅速采取行动以利用当前的股价，因此这可以解释一些错误、不一致和其他异常情况，”肯尼迪说。
TMTG 并不是 SPAC 交易中唯一一家在文件中存在拼写错误和错误的公司。肯尼迪在去年表示，他注意到更多这些问题正在渗透到投资者的演讲中。
“这有点多。这是关于估值和交易非常基本组成部分的错误。这些错误比我们通常看到的更严重，”他说。
预计明年的收入仅为 100 万美元
幻灯片列出了一系列财务预测，包括到 2026 年，Truth Social 用户数将达到 8100 万，每位用户的平均收入为 13.50 美元。该演示文稿指出，计划中的流媒体应用程序 TMTG+ 预计到 2025 年总订阅人数将达到 4000 万，每位用户的平均月费为 9 美元。
TMTG 在演讲中说：“TMTG 渴望创建一个媒体强国，与自由媒体联盟抗衡，并反击硅谷的‘大型科技'公司，这些公司利用他们的单方面权力压制了美国的反对声音。”
该公司表示，“鉴于特朗普总统的高度热情”，TMTG+ 的价格可能接近 Netflix 的价格。
然而，该演示文稿还承认，目前该业务并不多。
一张幻灯片显示，仅基于 Truth Social 的管理项目明年仅能产生 100 万美元的收入。
耶鲁大学法学院教授乔纳森·马西说：“这是极高的风险。这真的是在捅一刀。” “但显然很多人似乎相信这可以有所作为，因为估值确实在飙升。”
TMTG 最近宣布了一项在完成其 SPAC 协议后筹集 10 亿美元的交易。
不过，该公司没有透露承诺 10 亿美元的投资者是谁，只是说他们是一群“多元化”的机构投资者。
Renaissance 的 Kennedy 表示，10 亿美元的投资条款对投资者“异常有利”，授予他们优先股，以大幅折扣转换为普通股。
SEC 和 FINRA 正在调查
特朗普 SPAC 也是监管审查的对象。
上周，Digital World 在一份文件中表示，它于 11 月初收到了美国证券交易委员会的文件和信息请求。除其他事项外，数字世界表示，SEC 要求寻求数字世界与特朗普媒体和技术集团之间的文件和通信。
Digital World 还表示，华尔街的自律监管机构金融业监管局 (FINRA) 正在调查交易宣布前的交易情况。
10 月下旬，《纽约时报》报道称，早在这家空白支票公司上市以及向投资者披露此类谈判之前，特朗普就开始讨论与 Digital World 的合并。
这促使参议员伊丽莎白沃伦呼吁美国证券交易委员会调查 Digital World 是否违反了任何法律，因为该公司一再告诉股东，它没有与目标公司进行实质性谈判。
Devin Nunes 是新任 CEO
特朗普自己在 SPAC 交易中的角色尚不清楚。除了将他描述为 TMTG 的主席之外，这些文件并没有明确表明这位前总统的角色。特朗普没有回应置评请求。
尽管没有首席执行官，但 TMTG 于 10 月达成了上市交易。那个空缺已经由加州共和党人努内斯填补，他最近宣布他将离开众议院加入特朗普社交媒体公司。
然而，前养牛和奶农的努涅斯似乎没有任何社交媒体或技术方面的商业经验。他的国会网站说他拥有农业商业学士学位和农业硕士学位。努涅斯没有回应置评请求。
TMTG 不会由在技术或社交媒体方面拥有良好记录的高管运营，这一事实增加了该企业的风险性质。无数拥有经验丰富得多的高管的初创公司曾尝试打入这个市场，但都以失败告终。
“建立一家社交媒体公司很困难。即使在 Twitter 产生了数亿用户之后，人们仍然对这家公司存有疑虑，”肯尼迪说。 “你可以在这些项目上投入资金，但很难建立一个有粘性的平台。”
'This is weird and murky.' Trump SPAC deal values firm at more than $10 billion despite red flags
Former President Donald Trump's new media venture has no known revenue or product.
Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) posted an investor presentation last week that appears to contain errors and seems to have been partially copied and pasted from the internet. Bizarrely, one slide defines a user as a "sales representative who travels to visit customers," a definition that makes little sense given that this is a media company, not a sales platform.
TMTG's incoming CEO, Republican Congressman Devin Nunes, has no business experience in technology or social media. And federal regulators are investigating the deal to bring the media venture public.
Despite these red flags, TMTG is creating enormous buzz among at least some investors and has achieved an implied valuation above $10 billion, according to Renaissance Capital.
"This is weird and murky," Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management LLC, told CNN. "I've never seen anything like this before. And I probably never will again."
TMTG, chaired by the former president, simultaneously revealed a deal to go public through a merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp., which is a type of a shell company known as a SPAC, or a Special Purpose Acquisition Company. SPACs raise money that must be used to acquire and bring public private firms. Essentially they are blank-check firms that exist solely to find suitable merger partners.
SPACs have become very popular on Wall Street, in part because they can save time and money compared with traditional initial public offerings. Celebrities including Alex Rodriguez, Larry Kudlow and Shaquille O'Neal have gotten involved in SPACs, prompting regulators to warn investors not to invest in a SPAC just because a celebrity is involved.
Implied valuation above $11 billion
The Trump SPAC instantly set off a frenzy on Wall Street -- even though little was known about the new entity. Shares of Digital World skyrocketed as much as 1,657% in the days after the deal was announced before eventually retreating.
"This is now the meme stock of all meme stocks," said Tuttle, whose firm issues ETFs, including several that focus on the SPAC market. "Take all of the buzz going around about AMC and GameStop in January and February and multiple it by a million and that's what this is."
Based on Digital World's Monday closing price of $50.49, the SPAC deal implies a valuation on TMTG at about $10.5 billion, according to Renaissance Capital, which provides IPO-focused ETFs and pre-IPO research. That implied valuation includes warrants, private placements and a deal to raise $1 billion upon the completion of the SPAC merger.
Tuttle, who said his firm briefly owned shares in Digital World before they skyrocketed, called the valuation "somewhat frightening" and "ridiculous."
"Treat this like a gamble, because it definitely is," said Matthew Kennedy, senior IPO market strategist at Renaissance Capital. "It seems like a lot of the valuation is based on hype and the personal popularity of Donald Trump. That's not a sound investment rationale."
'It didn't really make sense'
One of the many unusual aspects of the Trump SPAC is that the parties initially released very little concrete information about the fundamentals of the business.
New documents were released last week, but they raise more questions than answers.
A 38-slide presentation filed by TMTG includes a page titled "Infrastructure" that defines a user as a "person, or organization, or system that has one or more roles that initiates or interacts with activities." It goes on to say that includes a "sales representative who travels to visit customers."
That definition is hard to reconcile with the fact that TMTG is supposed to be a conservative media company, not a platform that caters to traveling salespeople.
"It didn't really make sense," Kennedy said. "A better example of a user would be 'US residents with internet access' or 'one of the 89 million followers of Trump's former Twitter account.'"
Judd Legum, who writes the political newsletter Popular Information, flagged the definition of a "user" in a Twitter thread over the weekend. Legum pointed out that the language on the infrastructure slide is just "cut-and-pasted from other sites."
Indeed, the slide's description of database servers matches what is written on a page last updated in 2016 on Techopedia, a website that includes a tech jargon dictionary. The definition of load balancer matches what is listed on a page on the website of Citrix.
Likewise, the definition of a client matches what is found on the website of Cloudflare.
"In other words, not only does this company not have any technical infrastructure," Legum wrote, "it could not be bothered to even write its own slide of what the infrastructure will be."
TMTG did not respond to requests for comment.
'Serious errors'
But these are not the only oddities in the investor presentation.
Kennedy, the Renaissance Capital strategist, notes that slide 5 shows the PIPE (private investment in public equity) potentially converting into 13.7 million shares, even though other filings indicate the minimum is actually 29.8 million. Another line in the same slide appears to have another error about the number of shares to be held by TMTG stockholders, Kennedy said.
Another unusual element of the presentation is that slide 21 in the deck lists first names and last initials only of the members of TMTG's technology team.
"I believe they're moving very quickly to capitalize on the current share price, so that could explain some of the errors, inconsistencies and other abnormalities," Kennedy said.
TMTG is not the only company in a SPAC deal to have typos and errors in filings. Kennedy said in the last year, he's noticed more of these issues creeping into investor presentations.
"This is a bit more. It's an error regarding the valuation and very fundamental components of the deal. These are more serious errors than we normally see," he said.
Projecting just $1 million in revenue next year
The slide deck lists an array of financial projections, including that Truth Social could reach 81 million users by 2026 and generate $13.50 in average revenue per user. The presentation states that TMTG+, the planned streaming app, is projected to reach 40 million total subscribers by 2025 and generate $9 in average monthly fees per user.
"TMTG aspires to create a media powerhouse to rival the liberal media consortium and fight back against the 'Big Tech' companies of Silicon Valley, who have used their unilateral power to silence opposing voices in America," TMTG says in the presentation.
The company said TMTG+ could deliver a price point close to that of Netflix "given President Trump's highly enthused base."
Yet the presentation also concedes that the business doesn't amount to much at the moment.
One slOne slide indicates management projects to generate just $1 million in revenue next year, based solely on Truth Social.
"This is extremely high risk. It is really buying a pig in a poke," said Jonathan Macey, a professor at Yale Law School. "But apparently a lot of people seem to believe that something can be made of this because the valuation really is soaring."
TMTG recently announced a deal to raise $1 billion upon the completion of its SPAC agreement.
However, the company did not disclose who the investors committing $1 billion are, other than to say they are a "diverse group" of institutional investors.
Renaissance's Kennedy said the terms of the $1 billion investment are "unusually favorable" to the investors, granting them preferred shares that convert to common shares at a steep discount.
SEC and FINRA are investigating
The Trump SPAC is also the subject of regulatory scrutiny.
Last week, Digital World said in a filing it received a document and information request from the Securities and Exchange Commission in early November. Among other items, Digital World said the SEC request sought documents and communications between Digital World and Trump Media and Technology Group.
Digital World also said Wall Street's self-regulator, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or FINRA, is looking into trading prior to the deal's announcement.
In late October, the New York Times reported that Trump began discussing a merger with Digital World long before the blank-check company went public and before such talks were disclosed to investors.
That prompted Senator Elizabeth Warren to call for the SEC to investigate whether any laws were broken by Digital World because the company repeatedly told shareholders that it had not held substantive talks with a target company.
Devin Nunes is the new CEO
Trump's own role in the SPAC deal is unclear. The filings do not clearly indicate the former president's role, beyond describing him as the chairman of TMTG. Trump did not respond to requests for comment.
TMTG reached a deal to go public in October despite not having a CEO. That vacancy has since been filled by Nunes, the California Republican who recently announced he will leave the House to join the Trump social media firm.
Yet Nunes, a former cattle and dairy farmer, does not appear to have any business experience in social media or technology. His Congressional website says he has a bachelor's degree in agricultural business and a master's in agriculture. Nunes did not respond to requests for comment.
The fact that TMTG won't be run by an executive with a proven track record in technology or social media adds to the risky nature of the venture. Countless startups with far more experienced executives have tried and failed to crack this market.
"It's difficult to build a social media company. Even after Twitter generated hundreds of millions of users, there were doubts about the company," Kennedy said. "You can throw money at these projects, but it's hard to build a sticky platform."
