伦敦（美国有线电视新闻网）由于供应瓶颈和一波新的冠状病毒病例使经济陷入困境，今年冬天德国正处于衰退的边缘。
根据 Ifo 经济研究所周二发布的预测，欧洲最大的经济体今年第四季度将比第三季度萎缩 0.5%，并在 2022 年前三个月停滞不前。当经济连续两个季度收缩时，它就处于衰退之中。
Ifo 预测主管 Timo Wollmershäuser 在一份声明中表示：“持续的供应瓶颈和第四波冠状病毒正在明显放缓德国经济。” “最初预计在 2022 年实现的大流行后强劲复苏仍未实现。”
随着一波冠状病毒病例的消退和供应瓶颈的缓解，预计明年夏天增长将加快，但今年开局缓慢将使制造业巨头付出代价。 Ifo 将 2022 年的增长预测下调了 1.4 个百分点至 3.7%。
Ifo 预计今年通胀将增长 3.1%，2022 年将增长 3.3%，远远超过欧洲央行 2% 的目标。 Ifo 表示，预计消费者价格要到 2023 年才能恢复正常。
前景黯淡之际，世界各国正准备迎接由 Omicron 变体引起的潜在冠状病毒病例浪潮，这可能会给紧张的全球供应链增加压力，并迫使各国央行重新考虑取消对经济支持的计划。
上周，德国在努力控制第四波大流行的过程中，记录了自 2 月以来每天死于 Covid-19 的最高人数。本月早些时候，作为新限制的一部分，它禁止未接种疫苗的人进入除超市和药店等最重要的业务之外的所有业务。
国际能源署周二警告称，病例激增将减缓全球石油需求的复苏。该集团将 2021 年和 2022 年的石油需求预测下调了约 10 万桶/日，称航空旅行和航空燃料将受到最大影响。
自 11 月初以来，全球基准布伦特原油价格已下跌约每桶 10 美元至 75 美元以下。尽管如此，国际能源署表示，对经济的打击将不如之前的病毒浪潮那么严重。
该机构在其 12 月的月度报告中表示：“与之前的 Covid 浪潮相比，为阻止病毒传播而采取的新遏制措施可能对经济产生更温和的影响，尤其是因为广泛的疫苗接种活动。”
Europe's biggest economy is on the brink of a winter recession
London (CNN Business)Germany is teetering on the brink of recession this winter as supply bottlenecks and a wave of new coronavirus cases hobble the economy.
Europe's largest economy will shrink 0.5% in the fourth quarter of this year, compared with the third, and stagnate in the first three months of 2022, according to projections published Tuesday by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. An economy is in recession when it contracts for two consecutive quarters.
"Ongoing supply bottlenecks and the fourth wave of the coronavirus are noticeably slowing down the German economy," Timo Wollmershäuser, head of forecasts at Ifo, said in a statement. "The strong post-pandemic recovery that was originally expected for 2022 still hasn't materialized."
Growth is expected to pick up next summer as a wave of coronavirus cases subsides and supply bottlenecks ease, but the slow start to the year will cost the manufacturing powerhouse. Ifo slashed its growth forecast for 2022 by 1.4 percentage points to 3.7%.
Ifo expects inflation to increase by 3.1% this year and 3.3% in 2022, rates that far exceed the European Central Bank's target of 2%. Consumer prices are not expected to return to normal until 2023, according to Ifo.
The dour outlook comes as countries around the world brace for a potential tidal wave of coronavirus cases caused by the Omicron variant, which could add pressure to stretched global supply chains and force central banks to rethink plans to withdraw support for the economy.
Last week, Germany recorded its highest number of daily deaths from Covid-19 since February, as it struggled to bring a fourth wave of the pandemic under control. Earlier this month, it banned unvaccinated people from accessing all but the most essential businesses, such as supermarkets and pharmacies, as part of new restrictions.
The International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday that a surge in cases would slow the recovery in global oil demand. The group downgraded its oil demand forecast by roughly 100,000 barrels per day for both 2021 and 2022, saying that air travel and jet fuel would be most affected.
The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, has dropped about $10 per barrel since the start of November to under $75. Still, the IEA said that the hit to the economy would be less severe than previous waves of the virus.
"New containment measures put in place to halt the spread of the virus are likely to have a more muted impact on the economy versus previous Covid waves, not least because of widespread vaccination campaigns," the agency said in its monthly report for December.
