伦敦(CNN
商业)冠状病毒的 Omicron 变种正在迅速传播。但是,即使科学家在评估毒株的严重程度及其对疫苗效力的影响时敦促他们保持耐心,旅游业也感受到了痛苦。
“我们看到预订量出现了一些波动,”美国航空公司大厅的尼克卡利奥在周一的行业新闻发布会上说。
发生了什么:标准普尔 500 指数上周收于创纪录的收盘价。但酒店、旅游供应商和航空公司的股票——需要紧急资金才能度过之前的 Covid-19 浪潮——仍然容易受到 Omicron 担忧的影响。
美国航空 (AAL) 和邮轮嘉年华公司 (CCL) 的股价周一下跌 5%。万豪国际 (MAR) 下跌超过 4%。
最近几周,这些股票在两个方向上都出现了重大变动。但行业领导者明确表示,政府对旅行的更严格规定以及客户的焦虑正在产生影响。
在给英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊的一封信中,英国航空公司、维珍大西洋航空公司、瑞安航空公司 (RYAAY) 和easyJet 的首席执行官表示,“随意且不成比例的”旅行限制可能会给该行业带来“永久性的创伤”。
他们敦促政府取消对完全接种疫苗的乘客的所有紧急测试。
国际航空运输协会负责人威利沃尔什在上周的新闻发布会上表示,当发现新的变种时,航空公司首当其冲受到经济损失。他指出“在最近实施的新旅行限制之后,运力减少了”。
沃尔什说:“我们不能继续关闭航空和关闭经济,而实际上,它并没有提供任何限制病毒传播的措施,更重要的是,它正在对该行业造成巨大损害。”
根据联合国国际民用航空组织上周发布的一项评估,由于大流行造成的空前乘客减少已导致航空公司的收入损失近 7000 亿美元。
一些公司将需要帮助以承受另一次打击。以维珍大西洋为例。亿万富翁理查德布兰森爵士的维珍集团和达美航空公司周一表示,他们将向该航空公司注资 4 亿英镑(5.3 亿美元),预计该航空公司要到 2023 年才能恢复“可持续盈利能力”。
然而:有迹象表明,尽管存在不确定性,但因 Covid 疲劳的乘客仍决心继续飞行,这可能会限制影响。
美国运输安全管理局正在为假期期间的大量旅客做准备。上周日,约有 210 万人通过了机场安全检查站。
能源股位列年度最大赢家
2021 年伊始,美国油价略低于每桶 50 美元。他们现在的交易价格超过了 70 美元,10 月份达到了 85 美元——七年高点。
因此,我的 CNN 商业同事 Paul R. La Monica 报道说,美国能源股是今年市场的最大赢家,这应该不足为奇。
计算数字:石油和天然气勘探公司德文能源 (DVN) 是截至周一标准普尔 500 指数中表现最好的股票,涨幅接近 180%。
马拉松石油 (MPC) 和响尾蛇能源 (FANG) 上涨超过 100%。石油巨头阿帕奇的母公司 APA 和康菲石油也几乎翻了一番。
iCapital Network 首席投资策略师阿纳斯塔西娅·阿莫罗索 (Anastasia Amoroso) 表示,只要原油价格保持在每桶 60 美元至每桶 80 美元之间,石油库存在 2022 年也应该保持强劲。
但从长远来看,他们可能会面临麻烦,随着能源转型的加速,投资者会权衡石油投资的可行性。埃克森美孚 (XOM) 和雪佛龙 (CVX) 等大公司今年分别上涨了 50% 和 37%,它们继续与担心其战略的持怀疑态度的股东作斗争。
注意这个空间:国际能源署周二表示,新的冠状病毒病例激增将使石油需求每天减少 10 万桶,而美国以及沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯等国的产量将增加。这可能会继续推低原油价格。
但前景在很大程度上取决于 Omicron 变体的严重性以及政府如何应对。据国际能源署称,市场仍处于“发热状态”。
The travel industry is getting hit again. Can it take it?
London (CNN Business)The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is spreading fast. But even as scientists urge patience while they assess the severity of the strain and its impact on the efficacy of vaccines, the travel industry is feeling the pain.
"We've seen a little bit of a waver in the bookings," Nick Calio of the lobby Airlines for America said during an industry press briefing on Monday.
What's happening: The S&P 500 finished last week at a record close. But stocks in hotels, tour providers and airlines — which required emergency funding to make it through previous Covid-19 waves — remain vulnerable to Omicron fears.
Shares of American Airlines (AAL) fell 5% on Monday, as did cruise line Carnival Corporation (CCL). Marriott International (MAR) dropped more than 4%.
These stocks have seen significant moves in both directions in recent weeks. But industry leaders are making clear that tighter government rules around travel, as well as customer anxieties, are having an impact.
In a letter to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the chief executives of British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Ryanair (RYAAY) and easyJet said "haphazard and disproportionate" travel restrictions risk "permanent scarring" of the industry.
They're urging the government to scrap all emergency testing for fully vaccinated passengers.
Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association, said at a press briefing last week that when new variants are discovered, airlines bear the brunt of the economic damage. He pointed to "reductions in capacity following the new travel restrictions that were introduced recently."
"We cannot keep shutting down aviation and shutting down economies, when in reality, it's not providing any measures to restrict the transmission of the virus and more importantly, it's doing huge damage to the industry," Walsh said.
An unprecedented drop-off in passengers due to the pandemic has led to almost $700 billion in revenue losses for airlines, according to an assessment published last week by the UN's International Civil Aviation Organization.
Some companies will need help to withstand another blow. Take Virgin Atlantic. Billionaire Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Group and Delta Air Lines said Monday that they were pumping £400 million ($530 million) into the carrier, which doesn't expect to return to "sustainable profitability" until 2023.
And yet: There are signs that despite the uncertainty, Covid-fatigued passengers are determined to keep flying, which may limit the impact.
The US Transportation Security Administration is preparing for a crush of travelers over the holidays. About 2.1 million people passed through airport security checkpoints this past Sunday.
Energy stocks among the year's biggest winners
US oil prices began 2021 just under $50 a barrel. They are now trading north of $70, and in October reached $85 — a seven-year high.
It should come as no surprise, then, that American energy stocks are among the market's biggest winners this year, my CNN Business colleague Paul R. La Monica reports.
Running the numbers: Oil and natural gas exploration company Devon Energy (DVN) is the best performing stock in the S&P 500 through Monday, logging gains of nearly 180%.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Diamondback Energy (FANG) are up more than 100%. APA, the parent company of oil giant Apache, and ConocoPhillips have nearly doubled as well.
As long as crude prices remain between $60 a barrel and $80 per barrel, oil stocks should stay strong in 2022 as well, according to Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist with iCapital Network.
But longer term, they could face trouble, with investors weighing the viability of oil investment as the energy transition ramps up. Bigger companies like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), which are up 50% and 37% this year, respectively, continue to battle skeptical shareholders who worry about their strategies.
Watch this space: The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that a surge in new coronavirus cases will reduce oil demand by 100,000 barrels per day, while production in the United States, as well as countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia, picks up. That could keep pushing crude prices lower.
But the outlook depends in large part on the severity of the Omicron variant and how governments respond. The market, according to the IEA, remains in a "febrile state."