伦敦(美国有线电视新闻网)周四英国央行因物价飙升而感到不安,成为自大流行开始以来第一家加息的主要央行。美联储将在未来几个月跟进,预计明年将加息三次。
你可以争论加息的时间或规模,但几乎所有经济学家都同意,当价格快速上涨时,更高的借贷成本有助于降低需求和通胀。
然而,不是在土耳其,尽管通胀飙升,但土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安一再敦促该国不那么独立的中央银行降息。而银行正是这样做的,这可能会带来灾难性的后果。
想想看:土耳其的消费者价格在截至 11 月的一年中飙升了 21.3%。经济学家认为,通胀率可能会更高,在未来六到九个月内可能高达 30%。
与此同时,土耳其里拉正在暴跌。今年迄今为止,该货币兑美元汇率已下跌超过一半,并且有望创下 1995 年以来的最差表现。由于央行没有大量外汇储备,这种下滑很难停止。
它让自己的生活变得更加艰难。周四,土耳其央行连续第四个月降息,从 15% 降至 14%。
“埃尔多安总统继续向遭到严重清洗的 [央行] 发号施令,以检验他认为需要降低利率才能降低通胀的非正统观点。” Capital Economics 的 Jason Tuvey 说。
埃尔多安周四宣布将该国最低工资提高近 50%,以减轻受苦的工人,其中许多工人争先恐后地抛售里拉换取外币。
总统在新闻发布会上说:“通过这次上涨,我相信我们已经表明我们决心不让工人在价格上涨的重压下被压垮。”
此举可能会给埃尔多安带来政治上的推动。但众所周知,更高的工资是导致通货膨胀的一个因素,它们可能会使已经很糟糕的情况变得更糟。
其他国家继续采用更正统的方法。俄罗斯周五将利率上调了 1 个百分点,以应对不断上涨的物价。
Inflation is bad enough. One country is making it even worse
London (CNN Business)Unnerved by surging prices, the Bank of England on Thursday became the first major central bank to hike interest rates since the pandemic began. The US Federal Reserve will follow in the coming months, with three rate hikes expected next year.
You can quibble over the timing or the size of interest rate hikes, but just about every economist agrees that when prices rise quickly, higher borrowing costs can help reduce demand and inflation.
Not in Turkey, however, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly pushed the country's not-so-independent central bank to cut interest rates despite soaring inflation. And the bank is doing precisely that, with potentially disastrous consequences.
Consider: Consumer prices in Turkey spiked by 21.3% in the year to November. Economists think that inflation could go even higher, with a rate of up to 30% possible over the next six to nine months.
Meanwhile, the Turkish lira is plunging. The currency has lost more more than half its value against the US dollar so far this year, and is on track for its worst performance since 1995. The slide is difficult to stop because the central bank does not have significant foreign currency reserves.
And it's making life even harder for itself. On Thursday, the Turkish central bank cut interest rates for the fourth consecutive month, to 14% from 15%.
"President Erdogan has continued to dictate to the heavily-purged [central bank] to test out his unorthodox view that lower interest rates are needed to bring inflation down." said Jason Tuvey of Capital Economics.
In an effort to provide some relief to suffering workers, many of whom have scrambled to dump the lira for foreign currencies, Erdogan on Thursday announced a nearly 50% hike in the country's minimum wage.
"With this increase, I believe we have shown our determination not to allow workers to be crushed under the weight of increasing prices," the president said at a press conference.
The move may give Erdogan a political boost. But higher wages are a known contributor to inflation, and they could make an already dire situation worse.
Other countries continue to follow a more orthodox approach. Russia hiked interest rates by 1 percentage point on Friday in order to combat rising prices.