纽约(CNN 商业)编者注:这个故事的一个版本出现在 CNN 商业的 Nightcap 通讯中。要将其放入您的收件箱,请在此处免费注册。
今年流传的一个更阴险的谣言是,年轻人不想工作,因为他们靠政府援助过得很好。人们有太多的钱,少数政治家和专家的叙述。
唯一的问题是,数字不支持它。
事情是这样的:提前退休——无论是大流行强迫的还是其他可能的——都对劳动力市场产生了巨大影响。并且数据显示,退休的婴儿潮一代,远远超过“懒惰”的千禧一代,是劳动力短缺背后的最大力量。
在过去的两年里,人们出于各种原因离开了劳动力市场。但在那些已经离开并且最不可能回来的人中,绝大多数是加速退休的老年美国人。
上个月,与 2019 年 11 月相比,离开劳动力大军并表示不想工作的美国人增加了 360 万。其中 55 岁以上的美国人高达 90%。
出现这种情况的原因很少。
ADP 首席经济学家内拉·理查森 (Nela Richardson) 表示,强劲的股市和飙升的房价为高收入人群,尤其是婴儿潮一代提供了更多选择。
大流行的性质意味着老年人上班的风险更高。
雇主在吸引人们退出退休生活方面做得还不够。他们正在创造就业机会,但不是人们想要的。
关键引述:“我可以花 50 美元买一台 65 英寸的电视,但这并不意味着电视短缺,这意味着我不愿意支付足够的钱让别人向我出售电视,”亚伦·索杰纳说,劳动经济学家和明尼苏达大学卡尔森管理学院教授。
甚至白宫也意识到退休问题正在扭曲我们对劳动经济的理解。乔拜登总统经济顾问委员会成员贾里德伯恩斯坦表示,一旦“非黄金年龄”工人——即 55 岁以上的工人——被排除在指标之外,就会更清楚地了解劳动力复苏的情况,因为它剥夺了退出退休故事。
有迹象表明劳动力短缺正在缓解。
首先,退休人员开始重返工作岗位。 Indeed 的经济学家尼克·邦克 (Nick Bunker) 表示,在大流行初期,“未退休”率降至略高于 2%,但最近几个月已升至 2.6% 左右。这仍与大流行前约 3% 的比率有所不同。
让人们退出退休生活可能听起来很残酷,但情况并非总是如此——有些人退休不是因为他们想停止工作,而是因为在大流行中工作风险太大,或者他们找不到可以从中受益的工作超过了风险。
招聘经理的另一个一线希望:联邦快递表示,劳动力短缺在最近一个季度造成了 4.7 亿美元的损失,并表示人员配备前景正在改善。
联邦快递表示,鉴于其当前的薪酬方案和其他产品,例如提供员工友好、灵活的时间表选项的应用程序,其当前的招聘工作得到了良好的反响。仅在上周,它就收到了 111,000 份申请,创历史新高,而今年 5 月的一周仅收到了 52,000 份申请。
CNN Business 的克里斯·伊西多尔 (Chris Isidore) 报道称,该公司还对假期航运旺季结束后保留许多季节性员工持乐观态度。
The data that shows Boomers are to blame for the labor shortage
New York (CNN Business)Editor's Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN Business' Nightcap newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free, here.
One of the more insidious myths making the rounds this year was that young people didn't want to work because they were getting by just fine on government aid. People had too much money, went the narrative from a handful of politicians and pundits.
Only trouble is, the numbers don't back it up.
Here's the thing: Early retirement — whether forced by the pandemic or made possible otherwise — is having a huge impact on the labor market. And data show that retiring boomers, far more than "lazy" millennials, are the biggest force behind the labor shortage.
People have left the workforce for myriad reasons in the past two years. But among those who have left and are least likely to return, the vast majority are older Americans who accelerated their retirement.
Last month, there were 3.6 million more Americans who had left the labor force and said they didn't want a job compared with November 2019. A whopping 90% of them were over 55.
There are few reasons why this is the case.
The strong stock market and soaring home prices have given higher-income people, especially Boomers, more options, says ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson.
The nature of the pandemic means the risks of going to work are higher for older people.
Employers aren't doing enough to lure people out of retirement. They're creating jobs, just not the ones people want.
Key quote: "I can want a 65-inch TV for $50, but it doesn't mean there's a TV shortage, it means I'm not willing to pay enough to get somebody to sell me a TV," says Aaron Sojourner, a labor economist and professor at the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management.
Even the White House has recognized how the retirement issue is distorting our read of the labor economy. Jared Bernstein, a member of President Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisers, said that once "non-prime age" workers — those over 55 — are excluded from the metrics, a much clearer picture of how the labor recovery is doing emerges because it strips out the retirement narrative.
There are signs emerging that the labor shortage is easing.
First, retired people are starting to come back to work. The "unretirement" rate fell to just over 2% early in the pandemic, but in recent months has ticked up to around 2.6%, according to Nick Bunker, an economist at Indeed. That's still off from the pre-pandemic rate of around 3%.
Bringing people out of retirement might sound cruel, but it's not always the case — some people retired not because they wanted to stop working but because it was too risky to work in a pandemic, or they couldn't find a job in which the benefits outweighed the risks.
Another glimmer of hope for hiring managers: FedEx, which said the labor shortage cost it $470 million in its most recent quarter, says the outlook for staffing is improving.
FedEx said it is getting a good response from its current hiring efforts, given its current pay package and other offerings, such as an app that provides employee-friendly, flexible schedule options. In the last week alone, it got 111,000 applications, the highest in its history, and up from just 52,000 during a week in May of this year.
The company also is optimistic about keeping many of its seasonal hires on staff once the holiday shipping season is over, CNN Business' Chris Isidore reports.