伦敦 (CNN Business) 由于全球经济面临越来越大的威胁,股市和石油价格下滑,因此希望圣诞周轻松愉快的投资者可能会非常失望。
道琼斯指数在周一早盘交易中下跌超过 650 点,或 1.9%。标准普尔 500 指数下跌 1.8%,而以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数也下跌 1.8%。
基准布伦特原油价格下跌超过 3%,至每桶 71 美元以下。欧洲主要股市指数也下跌约1%。大多数亚洲市场跌幅更大,但上证综指表现略好,受到中国降息的适度支持。
周五道指收跌 532 点或 1.5%。这是三周以来最严重的跌幅。标准普尔 500 指数收盘下跌 1%。到目前为止,两者都仍然保持着今年的健康收益。
周一的跌幅似乎有两个因素。
欧洲和美国不断飙升的 Omicron 变体案例已经打击了企业,并迫使政府在一年中的关键时刻收紧对休闲和零售行业的活动限制。在民主党参议员乔曼钦表示他将反对拜登政府 1.75 万亿美元的“重建得更好”法案后,美国经济前景黯淡。
高级市场分析师杰弗里·哈雷写道:“欧米茄日益紧张,尤其是在英国和欧洲,再加上拜登总统的支出计划失败……导致亚洲股市在周五收盘后直接下跌,对华尔街的表现表示同情。”亚太地区,在 Oanda。
在曼钦周日在福克斯新闻上发表声明后,高盛立即下调了对美国经济的增长预期。这家华尔街公司告诉客户,它不再假设乔·拜登总统的签名立法会通过国会。
高盛以“更好地重建”计划“明显消亡”为由,现在预计美国第一季度 GDP 的年化增长率为 2%,低于此前的 3%。
Omicron 对企业构成的威胁加剧了人们的悲观情绪。截至周日,在美国至少 45 个州以及波多黎各和华盛顿特区已发现这种高传染性变种。由于 Delta 仍然存在,Covid-19 病例在某些地区正在上升。据州长凯西·霍赫尔 (Kathy Hochul) 办公室称,纽约周日连续第三天创造了单日 Covid-19 病例的新记录。
Omicron 也在欧洲迅速蔓延,促使该地区各国政府采取新措施限制旅行和社交活动。荷兰周日实施了严格的封锁措施,而法国周五表示将禁止在新年前夜举行大型户外活动和聚会。丹麦本周关闭了电影院和剧院,并限制了商店的人数。
该地区最大的经济体德国已经在衰退的边缘摇摇欲坠。
贝伦贝格首席经济学家霍尔格施密丁周一在一份研究报告中写道:“即使加强注射能有效降低医疗风险,但 Omicron 的快速传播仍可能使卫生系统负担过重,并迫使各国效仿荷兰并采取更具经济破坏性的限制措施。” .
他补充说,如果发生这种情况,与今年最后三个月相比,欧元区和英国的经济在 2022 年第一季度都可能萎缩 1%。
英国副首相多米尼克·拉布 (Dominic Raab) 周一告诉天空新闻 (Sky News),他不排除在英国圣诞节前实施 Covid-19 进一步限制的可能性。
达沃斯推迟
世界经济论坛周一宣布,由于 Omicron 爆发的不确定性,它将把原定于 1 月 17 日至 21 日在瑞士达沃斯举行的年会推迟到初夏。
该论坛在一份声明中说:“当前的大流行情况使得召开全球面对面会议变得极其困难,”并提到了 Omicron 对旅行的影响。
在伦敦,由于员工感染率上升和顾客数量锐减,一些酒吧和餐馆被迫关闭。由于 Covid-19 导致球员缺席,周末六场英超联赛足球比赛被推迟。
中国已经经历了严重的经济放缓,受到房地产危机、对私营企业的打击、破坏制造业和航运业的 Covid-19 爆发以及电力紧缩的冲击。分析人士表示,明年这个世界第二大经济体的增长速度可能会达到 1990 年以来的最低水平。
中国人民银行周一 20 个月来首次下调基准贷款最优惠利率,但股市的缓解很快就消失了。
Stocks fall and oil sinks as storm clouds gather over global economy
London (CNN Business)Investors hoping for an easy Christmas week could be sorely disappointed as stocks and oil prices slid in the face of growing threats to the global economy.
The Dow fell more than 650 points, or 1.9%, in late morning trading Monday. The S&P 500 was down 1.8% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.8% too.
Benchmark Brent crude prices were down more than 3% to below $71 a barrel. Major stock market indexes in Europe also fell by about 1%. Most Asian markets suffered bigger drops, although the Shanghai Composite fared slightly better, drawing modest support from a Chinese interest rate cut.
On Friday, the Dow finished down 532 points, or 1.5%. It was its worst drop in three weeks. The S&P 500 closed down 1%. Both are still sitting on healthy gains for the year so far.
Two factors appeared to be driving Monday's losses.
Soaring cases of the Omicron variant in Europe and the United States are already slamming businesses and forcing governments to tighten restrictions on activity at a critical time of year for the leisure and retail industries. And the prospects for the US economy dimmed after Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin said he would oppose the Biden administration's $1.75 trillion "Build Back Better" bill.
"A combination of increasing Omicron nerves, particularly in the UK and Europe, and the failure of President Biden's spending plan... has seen Asian equities head directly south in sympathy with Wall Street's Friday finish," wrote Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, Asia Pacific, at Oanda.
Goldman Sachs wasted no time in slashing its growth forecast for the US economy in the wake of Manchin's pronouncement on Fox News on Sunday. The Wall Street firm told clients it no longer assumes President Joe Biden's signature legislation will get through Congress.
Citing the "apparent demise" of Build Back Better, Goldman Sachs now expects US GDP to grow at an annualized pace of 2% in the first quarter, down from 3% previously.
Adding to the gathering gloom is the threat that Omicron poses to business. The highly-transmissible variant had been identified in at least 45 US states as of Sunday, as well as Puerto Rico and Washington, DC. And with Delta still present, Covid-19 cases are rising in some areas. New York set a new record for single-day Covid-19 cases for a third consecutive day Sunday, according to Gov. Kathy Hochul's office.
Omicron is also spreading fast in Europe, prompting governments across the region to introduce new measures restricting travel and social activity. The Netherlands introduced a strict lockdown on Sunday, while France said Friday it would ban large outdoor events and gatherings on New Year's Eve. Denmark has closed cinemas and theaters, and limited the numbers of people in shops this week.
Germany, the region's biggest economy, is already teetering on the brink of recession.
"Even if booster shots are effective at reducing the medical risks, a rapid spread of Omicron could still overburden health systems and force countries to follow the Netherlands and adopt more economically damaging restrictions," Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding wrote in a research note on Monday.
If that were to happen, the eurozone and the United Kingdom could both see their economies shrink by 1% in the first quarter of 2022, compared with the final three months of this year, he added.
UK Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab told Sky News on Monday that he could not rule out further Covid-19 restrictions being implemented before Christmas in England.
Davos delayed
The World Economic Forum announced Monday that it would delay its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland — scheduled for January 17-21 — until early summer because of uncertainty over the Omicron outbreak.
"Current pandemic conditions make it extremely difficult to deliver a global in-person meeting," the forum said in a statement, citing the impact of Omicron on travel.
In London, some bars and restaurants have been forced to shut down because of rising infections among staff and a collapse in customer numbers. Six English Premier League soccer matches were postponed over the weekend because of player absences due to Covid-19.
China is already experiencing a major economic slowdown, buffeted by a real estate crisis, a crackdown on private enterprise, outbreaks of Covid-19 that have disrupted manufacturing and shipping, and a power crunch. Analysts say the world's second biggest economy could grow at its slowest pace since 1990 next year.
The People's Bank of China trimmed its benchmark loan prime interest rate for the first time in 20 months on Monday, but stock market relief quickly evaporated.