伦敦（CNN Business）美国经济的前景突然变得更加黯淡。
周一，随着 Omicron 案件激增以及政府实施可能阻碍经济增长的抗病毒措施，全球投资者抛售股票，油价大幅下跌。
但在民主党参议员乔曼钦周日表示他不会投票支持乔拜登总统的经济和气候计划之后，美国面临第二次潜在打击。
截至美国东部时间周一上午 6 点 45 分，道琼斯指数期货下跌 370 点，跌幅超过 1%，而基准布伦特原油下跌约 3%，至每桶 71 美元。欧洲和亚洲的主要股市指数下跌约 2%。
安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃里安 (Mohamed El-Erian) 表示：“全球市场正在消化……在周末与 Omicron 相关的消息的背景下，对增长的担忧加剧。美国财政计划的黯淡前景也可能发挥作用。”周一在推特上。
对于 Omicron 预览，请看欧洲：荷兰处于严格的封锁之下。在英国，政府已要求人们在家工作，并且不排除在圣诞节前进一步限制。德国、丹麦和爱尔兰也在采取措施阻止这种变种。
“即使加强注射能有效降低医疗风险，但 Omicron 的快速传播仍可能使卫生系统负担过重，并迫使各国效仿荷兰并采取更具经济破坏性的限制措施，”贝伦伯格首席经济学家霍尔格施米丁说。
他补充说，如果发生这种情况，与今年最后三个月相比，欧元区和英国的经济在 2022 年第一季度都可能萎缩 1%。该地区最大的经济体德国已经在衰退的边缘摇摇欲坠。
美国可能只落后欧洲几天或几周。 “它将接管，”美国顶级传染病专家安东尼福奇在 CNN 的“国情咨文”中谈到 Omicron 时说。
快速传播的变体有可能给已经紧张的供应链增加压力并加剧通货膨胀。如果美国消费者减少购物、外出就餐和旅行，那也可能损害经济。
拜登一直在推动一项 1.75 万亿美元的法案，其中包括针对 3 岁和 4 岁儿童的普及学前班、儿童保育援助和儿童税收抵免以及联邦政府资助的带薪家庭和病假计划等举措。
为了通过国会通过“重建更好法案”，拜登需要曼钦的投票。但这位西弗吉尼亚人对立法的代价犹豫不决，并表示担心它可能会加剧已经飙升的通货膨胀。
尽管如此，大多数分析师预计曼钦最终会支持该法案。现在看来，这是一个误判。
高盛周日告诉客户，在曼钦宣布他是“不”之后，它不再假设该立法会通过国会。
“未能通过 BBB 会对增长产生负面影响，”以 Jan Hatzius 为首的高盛经济学家在研究报告中表示。
这家华尔街银行以“重建得更好”的“明显消亡”为由，现在预计第一季度 GDP 的年化增长率为 2%，低于此前的 3%。
高盛还将第二季度的 GDP 预测从 3.5% 下调至 3%，将第三季度的 GDP 预测从 3% 下调至 2.75%。它指出儿童税收抵免到期以及其他领域缺乏预期的支出。
对于投资者来说，一波坏消息可能意味着 2021 年的结束。
“这更像是万圣节而不是圣诞节，”法国兴业银行分析师 Kit Juckes 在周一的一份研究报告中写道。
A one-two punch for the US economy
London (CNN Business)The outlook for the American economy is suddenly much darker.
Investors around the world sold stocks and oil prices dropped sharply on Monday as Omicron cases surged and governments imposed anti-virus measures that could hamper economic growth.
But the US faces a second potential blow after Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat, said on Sunday that he will not vote for President Joe Biden's economic and climate plan.
Dow futures fell 370 points — or more than 1% — by 6:45 a.m. ET on Monday, while benchmark Brent crude was down about 3% at $71 a barrel. Major stock market indexes in Europe and Asia fell by around 2%.
"Global markets are pricing in ... greater growth concerns on the back of the weekend's Omicron-related news. Dimmed prospects for the US fiscal package may also be playing a role," Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, said Monday on Twitter.
For an Omicron preview, look to Europe: The Netherlands is under a strict lockdown. In the United Kingdom, the government has asked people to work from home and it has not ruled out further restrictions before Christmas. Germany, Denmark and Ireland are also taking steps to stem the variant.
"Even if booster shots are effective at reducing the medical risks, a rapid spread of Omicron could still overburden health systems and force countries to follow the Netherlands and adopt more economically damaging restrictions," said Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding.
If that were to happen, the eurozone and the United Kingdom could both see their economies shrink by 1% in the first quarter of 2022, compared with the final three months of this year, he added. Germany, the region's biggest economy, is already teetering on the brink of recession.
The United States may only be a few days or weeks behind Europe. "It's going to take over," Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, said of Omicron on CNN's "State of the Union."
The fast-spreading variant threatens to add pressure to already stretched supply chains and exacerbate inflation. If US consumers cut back on shopping, dining out and travel, that could also hurt the economy.
Biden has been pushing a $1.75 trillion bill that includes initiatives like universal pre-K for 3- and 4-year olds, child care assistance and child tax credits, and a federally funded paid family and sick leave program.
To get the Build Back Better Act through Congress, Biden needs Manchin's vote. But the West Virginian has balked at the legislation's price tag, and expressed concerns that it may add fuel to already soaring inflation.
Still, most analysts expected Manchin to eventually support the bill. That now appears to be a miscalculation.
Goldman Sachs told clients Sunday it no longer assumes the legislation will get through Congress after Manchin announced that he's a "no."
"A failure to pass BBB has negative growth implications," Goldman Sachs economists, led by Jan Hatzius, said in the research report.
Citing the "apparent demise" of Build Back Better, the Wall Street bank now expects GDP to grow at an annualized pace of 2% in the first quarter, down from 3% previously.
Goldman Sachs also trimmed its GDP forecasts for the second quarter to 3% from 3.5% and the third quarter to 2.75% from 3%. It pointed to the expiration of the child tax credit and the lack of spending in other areas that had been anticipated.
For investors, the wave of bad news could mean a rough end to 2021.
"It's a lot more like Halloween than Christmas," Societe Generale analyst Kit Juckes wrote in a research note Monday.
