美国人对经济感到沮丧。我们从所有调查中都知道这一点。然而，在这个假日购物季，大量工作、更高的工资和更富裕的家庭正在推动销售的蓬勃发展。我们如何调整悲观情绪和经济强劲复苏的循环对 2022 年的经济前景至关重要。要么我们的情绪好转，要么我们可能开始按照自己的感觉行事，经济就会动摇。
毫不奇怪，密歇根大学的消费者信心调查在大流行首次来袭时就陷入困境。令人惊讶的是，最新的调查显示，人们的情绪仍然像大流行初期一样阴暗。
在调查的悠久历史中，只有少数几次人们如此紧张。在所有那些时期，经济都处于衰退的阵痛之中。事实上，衰退之前总是伴随着消费者信心的大幅下降，因为它们是对经济未来的集体信心丧失。人们奔向众所周知的掩体，以躲避即将到来的经济风暴，从而点燃风暴。
但经济远未衰退——最近的经济统计数据令人印象深刻。在过去的一年里，经济平均每个月创造了超过 50 万个工作岗位。失业率正在快速下降，并没有比大流行之前高多少，工资也在强劲上涨，尤其是那些从事低工资工作的人。许多人富裕了许多，因为股市全年都创下了历史新高，而且房价从东海岸到西海岸都飙升。而这个季节正在累积成为零售商有史以来最好的季节之一。
那么为什么会出现目前的悲观情绪呢？最明显的是，这是流行病。近两年前大流行来袭时，情绪受到重创，此后一直低迷。特别难以处理的是 Covid-19 的 Delta 浪潮，因为它破灭了去年这个时候首次推出的疫苗将结束大流行的希望。还记得拜登总统在 Covid 中的“自由之夏”吗？
我们的自由是短暂的。太多美国人拒绝接种疫苗和采取其他预防措施，病毒已经进化。 Delta 现在让位于 Omicron 变体，这要求我们进行加强注射以避免最严重的病毒，但我们中的人太少了。达美航空和现在的 Omicron 明确表示，大流行尚未结束，对大流行的乐观情绪放错了地方。
最近通货膨胀的飙升也令人不安，尤其是对于许多没有经历过价格快速上涨的美国人来说。上一次通胀高到足以给经济带来痛苦是在近 40 年前的 1980 年代初。婴儿潮一代和他们的父母可能还记得必须花更多钱来加满油箱或做圣诞晚餐的刺痛，但年轻一代没有这样的背景。
令价格上涨更加震惊的是，它们似乎无处不在。就在一年前，在疫苗和经济全面重新开放之前，零售、旅游、娱乐和个人服务行业的许多企业仍在降价以吸引客户并生存。病毒的三角洲浪潮改变了这一切，它严重扰乱了全球供应链并加剧了劳动力短缺，导致企业提高了价格。
汽油价格的飙升只是放大了人们意识中价格上涨的严重性。许多人每天都会看到这个价格，并且是对他们整体财务状况的试金石。感恩节前后，当许多人上路探亲时，一加仑普通无铅汽油的全国价格最高接近 3.50 美元。过去天然气价格更高，但并不经常。
人们也可能会感到害怕，因为他们不仅为大多数东西支付了高得多的价格，而且有些东西他们根本无法得到，至少不能很快得到。与以往一样贫瘠的汽车经销商地段是这方面的典型代表。即使获得几乎任何类型的家庭维修所需的零件也很困难。有时，从消费电子产品和家具到宠物食品和玩具等产品也很难获得。
我们功能失调的政治也给我们看待事物的方式蒙上了一层阴影。我们的政党是否掌权长期以来一直左右着我们的看法。乔拜登赢得总统大选后的第二天，共和党人变得更加悲观，而民主党人则更加乐观。但自那以后，关于选举的激烈争论似乎已经结束。 1 月 6 日的起义和国会对此的调查就是一个证明。
如果我对美国心理问题的诊断大致正确，那么我们将不会很快恢复正常。 第四波大流行已经形成，这一波由 Omicron 变体驱动，我们对此知之甚少。 随着中期选举的临近，我们激烈的政治言论更有可能变得更糟而不是更好。
但我们应该很快就会从失控的通货膨胀中得到解脱。 最近几周汽油价格下跌，而且随着全球油价下跌，汽油价格还将进一步下跌。 供应链正在慢慢克服瓶颈，随着劳动力参与率的提高，最严重的工人短缺似乎已经过去。
那么，它是哪个？ 我们的悲观情绪会拖累经济，还是会继续强劲复苏并最终振作起来？ 后者的可能性更大，但随着大流行的持续蔓延和我们的政治变得不那么文明，我越来越不自信地说出这句话。
What glum consumer sentiment could mean for the US economy next year
Americans are feeling glum about the economy. We know this from all the surveys. And yet, lots of jobs, higher wages and wealthier households are powering booming sales this holiday shopping season. How we square the circle of our bleak mood and the economy's robust recovery is critical to the 2022 economic outlook. Either our mood improves, or we may start acting the way we feel and the economy will falter.
Not surprisingly, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey cratered when the pandemic first hit. What is surprising is that the latest survey shows that sentiment remains as dark as it was during the early days of the pandemic.
There are only a handful of times in the survey's long history when people have been so on edge. In all of those times, the economy was in the throes of recession. Indeed, recessions are always preceded by big declines in consumer sentiment, as they are a collective loss of faith in the economy's future. People run for the proverbial bunker to be sheltered from the coming economic storm, and by so doing, ignite the storm.
But the economy is far from recession — the recent economic statistics are downright impressive. The economy has created well over half-a-million jobs on average each month this past year. Unemployment is falling fast and isn't much higher than it was prior to the pandemic, and wages are rising robustly, especially for those in low-wage jobs. Many are a lot wealthier, as the stock market has posted records all year, and house prices have rocketed higher from coast to coast. And this season is stacking up to be one of the best ever for retailers.
So why the current gloom? Most obviously, it is the pandemic. Sentiment was hammered when the pandemic hit nearly two years ago and has wallowed ever since. What is especially hard to process has been the Delta wave of Covid-19, as it dashed hopes that the vaccines, which were first rolled out this time last year, would put an end to the pandemic. Remember President Biden's "summer of freedom" from Covid?
Our freedom was short-lived. Too many Americans refused to get vaccinated and take other precautions, and the virus has evolved. Delta is now giving way to the Omicron variant, which requires that we get booster shots to avoid the worst of the virus, but too few of us have. Delta, and now Omicron, make clear that the pandemic is not over, and optimism over the pandemic was misplaced.
The recent surge in inflation is also unnerving, especially for many Americans who've had no experience with quickly rising prices. The last time inflation was high enough to be financially painful was almost 40 years ago in the early 1980s. Baby boomers and their parents may remember the sting of having to pay a lot more to fill a gasoline tank or make Christmas dinner, but younger generations have no such context.
Adding to the shock of the price increases is that they seemingly came out of nowhere. Just a year ago, before the vaccines and the economy's full reopening, many businesses in the retail, travel, recreational and personal service industries were still cutting prices in an effort to attract customers and survive. The Delta wave of the virus changed all of that, as it badly scrambled global supply chains and exacerbated labor shortages, causing businesses to raise prices.
The surge in gasoline prices has only magnified the enormity of the price increases in peoples' consciousness. It is a price that many see several times a day, and is something of a litmus test for their overall financial situation. Around Thanksgiving, when many people took to the roads to visit family, the nationwide price of a gallon of regular unleaded topped out near $3.50. Gas has been more expensive in times past, but not often.
People may also be freaked out that not only are they paying much higher prices for most everything, but there are some things they can't get at all, at least not quickly. Car dealer lots, which are as barren as they've ever been, are the poster child for this. Even getting needed parts for almost any type of household repair is difficult. At times, it has also been tough to come by products ranging from consumer electronics and furniture to pet food and toys.
Our dysfunctional politics have also put a dark hue on how we see things. Whether our political party is in power has long held sway over our perceptions. The day after Joe Biden won the presidential election, Republicans turned much more pessimistic and Democrats more optimistic. But the acrimony over the election has seemingly since boiled over. The January 6 insurrection and the Congressional investigation into it are a testament.
If my diagnosis of what ails the American psyche is roughly right, then we won't get our groove back anytime soon. A fourth wave of the pandemic is already forming, this one powered by the Omicron variant, of which we still know little about. And our acid political discourse is more likely to get worse than better as the midterm elections get closer.
But we should soon get relief from runaway inflation. Gasoline prices have fallen in recent weeks and are set to fall further with the decline in global oil prices. Supply chains are slowly working through their bottlenecks, and it appears the worst of the worker shortages is behind us as labor force participation is pushing higher.
So, which is it? Will our dour mood drag the economy down or will the strong recovery continue to prevail and eventually lift our spirits? The latter remains more likely, but I say this with less and less confidence as the pandemic drags on and our politics turn less civil.
