根据一项支出指标,假日销售以 17 年来最快的速度增长,即使购物者在本季度的最后几周努力应对价格上涨、产品短缺和肆虐的新 Covid-19 变种。
追踪包括现金和借记卡在内的各种支付方式的万事达卡 SpendingPulse 周日报告称,假日销售额较上年同期增长了 8.5%。万事达卡 SpendingPulse 曾预计增长 7.4%。
结果,从 11 月 1 日到 12 月 24 日,受到购买服装和珠宝的推动。
与大流行前的 2019 年假期相比,假期销售额增长了 10.7%。
按品类划分,服装上涨 47%,珠宝上涨 32%,电子产品上涨 16%。在线销售额同比增长 11%,比 2019 年增长 61%。百货商店的销售额比 2020 年增长 21%。
下个月,当全国最大的零售贸易集团全国零售联合会在 1 月中旬公布其两个月的合并结果时,将揭示更广阔的前景。结果将基于对商务部 11 月和 12 月销售数据的分析。分析师还将剖析定于 2 月份发布的不同零售商的第四季度财务业绩。
总体而言,分析师预计假日季节会很强劲,这是由于预计产品短缺而于 10 月开始的提早购物推动了这一趋势。一年前,消费者也决心庆祝节日。尽管如此,11 月零售销售放缓,部分原因是提早购物。而在美国迅速成为该病毒主要版本的 omicron 现在已经破坏了许多不得不在最后一刻取消聚会的美国人的假期计划。
全国零售联合会在 12 月初表示,假日销售有望超过其已经创纪录的预测,与去年同期相比增长 8.5% 至 10.5%。 2020 年假日销售额增长了 8.2%,当时在大流行初期被封锁的购物者大肆购买睡衣和家居用品,主要是在线购物。
该集团预计,包括在总数中的在线和其他非实体店销售额将增长 11% 至 15%。这些数字不包括汽车经销商、加油站和餐馆。据该集团称,过去五年假日销售额平均增长了 4.4%。
NRF 的更新于 12 月初发布,就在 omicron 在美国成为更大威胁并开始扰乱从百老汇剧院到餐馆的业务之前。但整体门店客流量并未大幅下降,尽管一些门店报告称大城市地区的客流量有所下降。 Sensormatic Solutions 的数据显示,在截至 12 月 18 日的一周中,商店客流量同比增长近 20%,但与 2019 年大流行前的同一周相比下降了 23%。 Sensormatic 零售咨询高级经理 Peter McCall 指出,购物者仍然会去零售店,但现在比封闭式购物中心更喜欢露天购物中心和奥特莱斯购物中心。
在阻碍了一些零售商的经济环境中,零售额继续增长。许多人不得不大幅提高工资来寻找和留住工人,从而增加了他们的经商成本。他们还争先恐后地用仍在备份的美国主要港口装满货架。
与此同时,美国人以不同的方式证明了他们的韧性。他们为食品和汽油等必需品支付了更多的费用,给假期购物者的预算带来了压力。事实上,消费者物价在过去一年上涨了 5.7%,是 39 年来最快的涨幅,因为通胀飙升使美国人面临假日购物季的到来。商务部周四宣布了 11 月的上涨,在截至 10 月的 12 个月里上涨了 5.1%,延续了一系列高于美联储设定的 2% 通胀目标的年度价格上涨。
美国人还学会了适应产品短缺,如果他们的首选产品不可用,就会转向替代品,或者在 eBay 等其他场所寻找他们的顶级品牌。
尽管像塔吉特和沃尔玛这样的大型零售商承诺为假期提供库存,但其他地方的供应限制似乎很顽固。 Target 首席执行官布莱恩康奈尔最近告诉美联社,他认为清除供应链堵塞需要几年时间。
Despite supply issues and omicron, holiday sales rise 8.5%
Holiday sales rose at the fastest pace in 17 years, even as shoppers grappled with higher prices, product shortages and a raging new Covid-19 variant in the last few weeks of the season, according to one spending measure.
Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks all kinds of payments including cash and debit cards, reported Sunday that holiday sales had risen 8.5% from a year earlier. Mastercard SpendingPulse had expected a 7.4% increase.
The results, which covered Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, were fueled by purchases of clothing and jewelry.
Holiday sales were up 10.7% compared with the pre-pandemic 2019 holiday period.
By category, clothing rose 47%, jewelry 32%, electronics 16%. Online sales were up 11% from a year ago and 61% from 2019. Department stores registered a 21% increase over 2020.
A broader picture will be revealed next month when the National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group, comes out with its combined two-month results in mid-January. The results will be based on an analysis of the November and December sales figures from the Commerce Department. Analysts will also be dissecting the fourth-quarter financial results from different retailers that are slated to be released in February.
Overall, analysts had expected a strong holiday season, fueled by early shopping that started back in October in anticipation of a product shortage. Consumers were also determined to celebrate the holidays after a muted one a year ago. Still, November saw a slowdown in retail sales, in part because of the early shopping. And omicron, which has fast become the dominant version of the virus in the United States, has now spoiled holiday plans for many Americans who have had to cancel gatherings last minute.
The National Retail Federation said early in December that holiday sales were on track to beat its already record-breaking forecasts for an increase of 8.5% to 10.5% compared to the year-ago period. Holiday sales increased 8.2% in 2020 when shoppers, locked down during the early part of the pandemic, splurged on pajamas and home goods, mostly online.
The group expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, will increase between 11% and 15%. The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. Holiday sales have averaged gains of 4.4% over the past five years, according to the group.
The update from the NRF was delivered in early December, right before omicron became a bigger threat in the U.S. and started to disrupt businesses from Broadway theaters to restaurants. But overall store traffic hasn't taken a plunge, though some stores are reporting dips in big city locations. For the week that ended Dec. 18, store traffic was up nearly 20% from a year earlier, though down 23% from the same week in the pre-pandemic year of 2019, according to Sensormatic Solutions. Peter McCall, Sensormatic's senior manager of retail consulting, noted shoppers are still going to retail stores but are now favoring open-air shopping centers and outlet malls more than enclosed shopping centers.
Retail sales have continued to rise in an economic environment that has hamstrung some retailers. Many have had to sharply increase pay to find and keep workers, increasing their cost of doing business. They also scrambled to fill shelves with major U.S. ports still backed up.
At the same time, Americans proved their resilience in different ways. They paid more across the board for necessities like food and gas, putting pressure on holiday shoppers' budgets. In fact, consumer prices rose 5.7% over the past year, the fastest pace in 39 years, as a surge in inflation confronts Americans with the holiday shopping season under way. The November increase, announced Thursday by the Commerce Department, followed a 5.1% rise for the 12 months ending in October, continuing a string of annual price increases that have been above the 2% inflation target set by the Federal Reserve.
Americans also learned to adjust to product shortages, turning to alternatives if their top choices were not available, or looking at other venues like eBay to find their top brands.
Though big-box retailers like Target and Walmart promised stocked shelves for the holiday, supply constraints appear to be stubborn elsewhere. Target CEO Brian Cornell recently told The Associated Press he believes that it will take several years for supply chain clogs to be cleared.