伦敦 (CNN Business) 购买食物变得越来越贵。不幸的是，预计到 2022 年去超市不会便宜很多。
正在发生的事情：被压抑的需求、高昂的运输和化肥成本以及恶劣的天气可能会继续支撑玉米、可可和糖等产品的价格。即使其他经济领域的通胀下降，这也可能使全球食品价格保持高位。
“我们预计价格将保持在这些高位，”荷兰合作银行的农产品分析师迈克尔马格多维茨告诉我。
细分：联合国粮农组织的食品价格指数今年攀升至 10 年来的最高水平。大流行造成的中断——包括劳动力短缺和缺乏货物集装箱——在需求激增之际提高了生产商的成本，尤其是在中国。包括干旱和洪水在内的极端天气使情况变得更糟。
荷兰合作银行在其年终报告中表示，去年农产品价格上涨了约 28%，比大流行前水平高出约 40%。
根据Refinitiv的数据，玉米期货比年初高出约28%。小麦上涨了 24%，咖啡价格飙升了 80% 以上。
运费最近有所下降。但这可能不足以有意义地改变情况。
Magdovitz 说，一个问题是，在大流行之前，消费者根据需要购买了许多农产品。然后 Covid-19 来袭，买家后悔没有增加库存——尤其是在需求飙升的情况下。如果现在价格下跌，许多人会急于重建库存。
马格多维茨说：“如果市场出现重大突破——我们不一定会在很多这些商品中看到——这将由消费者双手把握。” “这将限制价格下跌的能力。”
在农业方面，生产者不能只是迅速增加供应。很难快速增加耕地或大幅提高产量。
另一个问题是对不稳定天气的持续预期。拉尼娜现象已经出现在太平洋。这通常会给阿根廷、巴西南部和美国南部带来比平均水平更干燥和温暖的天气。与此同时，2021 年出现的山洪暴发、意外霜冻和其他干旱可能会延续到明年或重复发生。
“拉尼娜事件现在正在产生巨大的影响，”马格多维茨说，他指的是最近大豆价格的上涨。
大局：大豆和玉米等商品的价格只是杂货店受到冲击的原因之一。食品公司也在处理更昂贵的包装和更高的分销成本。工人的工资也在上涨。
其中一些因素可能会在未来 12 个月内缓解。但是，就目前而言，制造商预计不会有太大变化。卡夫亨氏 (KHC) 和亿滋 (MDLZ) 已经表示，他们计划在 2022 年初提高零售客户的价格。
The uncomfortable truth about food prices in 2022
London (CNN Business)Buying food has gotten increasingly expensive. Unfortunately, going to the supermarket isn't expected to get much cheaper in 2022.
What's happening: Pent-up demand, high shipping and fertilizer costs and bad weather could continue to prop up the price of products like corn, cocoa and sugar. That could keep global food prices elevated, even if inflation in other parts of the economy comes down.
"We expect prices to remain at these lofty levels," Michael Magdovitz, an agricultural commodities analyst at Rabobank, told me.
Breaking it down: The FAO Food Price Index from the United Nations climbed to a 10-year high this year. Disruptions from the pandemic — including labor shortages and a lack of containers for goods — boosted costs for producers just as demand jumped, especially in China. Extreme weather, including droughts and floods, made the situation worse.
Agricultural commodity prices rose about 28% in the last year, and they stand about 40% above pre-pandemic levels, Rabobank said in its year-end report.
According to data from Refinitiv, corn futures are about 28% higher than at the start of the year. Wheat has jumped 24%, and coffee prices have skyrocketed more than 80%.
Shipping costs have recently come down a tad. But that may not be enough to meaningfully change the picture.
One problem, Magdovitz said, is that before the pandemic, consumers were buying many agricultural products on an as-needed basis. Then Covid-19 hit, and buyers regretted not building up their stocks — especially as demand soared. If prices drop now, many will rush to rebuild inventories.
"If there is a big break in the market — which we don't see, necessarily, across a lot of these commodities — it will be taken with both hands by consumers," Magdovitz said. "That will limit the ability of prices to fall."
When it comes to agriculture, producers can't just rapidly ramp up supply. It's hard to quickly increase arable land or improve yields dramatically.
Another issue is ongoing expectations for erratic weather. La Niña conditions have emerged in the Pacific. That typically brings drier and warmer-than-average weather in Argentina, the south of Brazil and the southern United States. Meanwhile, flash flooding, surprise frosts and other droughts that featured in 2021 could extend into or repeat next year.
"That La Niña event is having a big, big impact right now," Magdovitz said, pointing to the recent leap in soybean prices.
Big picture: The price of items like soybeans and corn is just one reason for sticker shock at the grocery store. Food companies are also dealing with more expensive packaging and higher distribution costs. Wages for workers are rising, too.
Some of these factors could ease in the next 12 months. But, for now, manufacturers don't predict much change. Kraft Heinz (KHC) and Mondelez (MDLZ) have already said that they plan to hike prices for their retail customers in early 2022.
