纽约（CNN Business）美国以数十年来的高通胀结束了这一年。这对 2022 年来说不是好兆头。
价格已经攀升到如此之高，他们需要一些时间才能回到现实。换句话说，2021 年令人不安的通胀数据很可能会伴随我们进入新年。
我们拥有的最新价格数据来自 11 月份，当时两个最受关注的通胀指标——消费者价格指数和个人消费支出指数——均攀升至 39 年高位。
后一个指数是美联储在评估国家通胀时最关注的。
有一些乐观的空间：负责保持价格稳定的央行正在缩减其大流行的刺激措施，预计明年将加息以抑制通胀并阻止经济过热。
上个月的数据实际上显示，CPI 和 PCE 指数 11 月的价格涨幅均低于 10 月。这是个好消息，尽管放缓幅度很小，仅为 0.1 个百分点。
但事情是这样的：经济学家更喜欢观察一段时间内的价格走势，通常是 12 个月。因此，像 11 月这样的小幅放缓还不会动摇指针。
事实上，这些增量放缓可能需要几个月的时间才能出现在数据中。在高需求和供应链混乱导致价格飙升一年之后，许多大数据被纳入 12 个月的数据集中。即使通胀突然跌落悬崖，领先指数也需要时间来反映这一点。这就是美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔在提到“基数效应”时所谈论的内容。
Why prices will keep soaring in 2022
New York (CNN Business)America is finishing the year with decades-high inflation. That doesn't bode well for 2022.
Prices have climbed so high it will take some time for them to come back down to earth. In other words, the uncomfortable inflation numbers of 2021 will likely stay with us well into the New Year.
The most recent price data we have is from November, when two of the most watched inflation measures — the consumer price index and the personal consumption expenditure index — each climbed to a 39-year high.
The latter index is what the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to when assessing the nation's inflation.
There's some room for optimism: The central bank, which is tasked with keeping prices stable, is rolling back its pandemic stimulus and is expected to raise interest rates next year to tame inflation and stop the economy from overheating.
And last month's data actually showed that prices increased at a slower rate in November than in October for both the CPI and the PCE indices. That's good news, even though the slowdown was small at only 0.1 percentage points.
But here's the thing: Economists prefer to look at price movements over a period of time, usually 12 months. So a small slowdown like November's won't move the needle just yet.
In fact, it might take months for these incremental slowdowns to show up in the data. After a year of prices soaring on high demand and supply chain chaos, a lot of big numbers are baked into the 12-month data set. Even if inflation suddenly falls off a cliff, it would take time for the leading indices to reflect that. This is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell is talking about when he mentions "base effects."
