有几个因素导致价格上涨。
一个是去年夏天出现的供应链混乱。尽管一些瓶颈有所缓解，但问题并未完全解决。只要在世界范围内运输货物的成本更高——而且需要更多的时间——更高的运输成本很可能会转嫁给消费者。
另一个重要原因是商品价格的高成本，导致能源和食品成本飙升。今年这两个行业的价格都飙升，为我们已经看到的通胀增加了很大一部分。就食品而言，高价迫使一些消费者少买或换店。
经济学家预计明年情况不会好转。除了高需求和运输成本外，化肥价格上涨和持续恶劣的天气可能会使食品价格保持高位，即使其他流行病引发的通胀压力有所缓解。
租金上涨也仍然令人担忧。这很重要，因为住房占人们花钱的很大一部分。如果租金吃掉了更大的一块蛋糕，消费者最终可能会减少支出，这对复苏来说将是个坏消息。
根据美国银行经济学家的数据，11 月租金连续第三个月上涨 0.4%，这表明未来通胀会更高、更持久。
摩根大通经济学家 Peter B. McCrory 表示，“最近通胀压力的扩大与租金通胀的显着回升相吻合，”摩根大通在 9 月份的 CPI 报告中跃升至 20 年来的最高月度利率，此后一直保持坚挺.”
然后是 Omicron。
最近几周，包括美国在内的几个国家的 Covid-19 感染率都创下了历史新高，因为这种变种迅速传播。如果这导致新一轮的封锁，它可能会再次改变消费者的消费方式并刺激对居家用品的需求。
或许更重要的是，Omicron 可能会影响能源价格：如果限制恢复，人们出行减少，能源需求下降将意味着价格下降，这将有助于降低通胀。
Why will inflation remain high?
Several factors are keeping prices elevated.
One is the supply chain chaos that came to a head last summer. Even though some bottlenecks have eased, the issues are not fully resolved. And as long as it's more expensive — and takes more time — to move goods around the world, higher transport costs will likely be passed down to consumers.
Another big contributor is the high cost of commodity prices, leading to surging energy and food costs. Prices in both sectors have soared this year and added a good chunk to the inflation we have already seen. In the case of food, high prices have forced some consumers to buy less or switch stores.
Economists don't expect that to get any better next year. Aside from high demand and shipping costs, rising prices for fertilizer and continued bad weather could keep food prices high even as other pandemic fueled inflation pressures ease.
Rising rents also remain a concern. This is important because housing represents a big percentage of what people spend money on. If rents eat up a bigger piece of the pie, consumers might wind up spending less, which would be bad news for the recovery.
In November, rent rose 0.4% for the third month in a row, according to economists at Bank of America, and that points to higher and more persistent inflation going forward.
The "recent broadening of inflationary pressure has coincided with a notable pickup in rental inflation," said Peter B. McCrory, economist at JPMorgan, "which jumped to its highest monthly rate in 20 years in the September CPI report and has stayed firm since then."
And then there's Omicron.
Several countries, including the United States, have seen record high Covid-19 infections in recent weeks because of the rapidly spreading variant. If this leads to a new round of lockdowns, it could once again change the way consumers spend and boost demand for stay-at-home goods.
Perhaps more importantly, Omicron could impact energy prices: If restrictions return and people travel less, the lowered energy demand would mean prices ease, and that would help bring inflation back down.
