在 2022 年的第二次大跃进中，抵押贷款利率再次升至大流行开始以来的最高水平。
根据房地美的数据，截至 1 月 13 日的一周，30 年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率为 3.45%，高于前一周的平均 3.22%。这是自 2020 年 3 月达到 3.5% 以来的最高水平。
房地美首席经济学家萨姆·哈特 (Sam Khater) 表示：“所有抵押贷款类型的抵押贷款利率均上涨，30 年期固定利率抵押贷款比上周上涨了近 25%。” “今年迄今为止抵押贷款利率的上升尚未影响购房需求，但鉴于房价增长速度很快，这可能会在不久的将来抑制需求。”
卡特表示，利率上涨是由于预期美联储将更快地控制其刺激货币措施以应对通胀压力。 12 月，消费者价格以 40 年来最快的速度上涨。
Realtor.com 的经济研究经理 George Ratiu 表示，利率上升的另一个原因是，总体而言，经济正在改善。
Ratiu 表示：“尽管病例数量众多，但 Omicron 浪潮的温和影响表明大流行后前景更加光明，这种情绪支撑了对经济前景更加乐观的情绪。”
但不断上升的抵押贷款利率、接近历史最低水平的库存和更高的房价可能会将一些买家赶出市场。
Ratiu 说，按照今天的速度，购买中等价位房屋的买家每月比一年前多支付约 219 美元，每年的住房成本增加了 2,600 多美元。
“随着大多数消费品和服务的价格上涨，买家感到钱包很紧，”拉蒂乌说。 “负担能力仍然是今年首次购房者面临的核心挑战。”
Ratiu 说，还有迹象表明，一些购房者比典型的春季购房季节更早开始购物。
根据抵押银行家协会的数据，上周抵押贷款申请比前一周略有上升。由于有很多人想买房，MBA 经济和行业预测副总裁 Joel Kan 表示，他预计新抵押贷款的申请数量将保持强劲。
他说，政府支持贷款的申请——对于首次购房者和首付资金较少或信用评分较差的人来说是一个有吸引力的选择——也有所增加，联邦住房管理局 (FHA) 贷款和VA贷款。
“房地产市场在 2022 年开局强劲，”菅直人说。 “MBA 预计今年购买活动将稳健增长，因为人口驱动因素和强劲的经济支持住房需求。然而，增长的力量将取决于住房库存更快地增长以满足需求。”
Mortgage rates are highest since March 2020
In the second big jump of 2022, mortgage rates again rose to a high not seen since the start of the pandemic.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.45% in the week ending January 13, up from an average 3.22% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. It's the highest the average rate has been since March 2020, when it hit 3.5%.
"Mortgage rates rose across all mortgage loan types, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increasing by almost a quarter of a percent from last week," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist. "The rise in mortgage rates so far this year has not yet affected purchase demand, but given the fast pace of home price growth, it will likely dampen demand in the near future."
The rate jump was driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will more quickly rein in its stimulus monetary measures in response to inflation pressure, said Khater. Consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years in December.
Another reason rates are going up is that, overall, the economy is improving, said George Ratiu, Realtor.com's manager of economic research.
"The mild impact of the Omicron wave, despite the high number of cases, points toward a brighter post-pandemic horizon, a sentiment which underpins a more bullish outlook on the economy," said Ratiu.
But rising mortgage rates together with near record low inventory and higher home prices may push some buyers out of the market.
At today's rate, buyers of a median-priced home are paying about $219 more per month than a year ago, adding over $2,600 to their yearly housing costs, Ratiu said.
"With prices for most consumer goods and services increasing, buyers are feeling the pinch on their wallets," Ratiu said. "Affordability continues to be a central challenge for this year's first-time buyers."
There are also indications that some homebuyers have begun shopping earlier than the typical spring buying season, Ratiu said.
Last week, mortgage applications rose slightly from the week before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Because there are so many people looking to buy a home, Joel Kan, MBA's associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said he expects the number of applications for a new mortgage to remain robust.
Applications for government-backed loans -- an appealing option for first-time homebuyers and those with less money for a down payment or poorer credit scores -- have also increased, he said, with applications for both Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans and VA loans up.
"The housing market started 2022 on a strong note," Kan said. "MBA expects solid growth in purchase activity this year, as demographic drivers and the strong economy support housing demand. However, the strength in growth will be dependent on housing inventory growing more rapidly to meet demand."
