白宫想要直截了当：乔·拜登总统不受欢迎。但他并不是那么不受欢迎。
对真的。
看看周四晚上白宫副幕僚长詹奥马利狄龙发布的一份民意调查备忘录，该备忘录对昆尼皮亚克大学的一项新民意调查提出质疑，该民意调查显示拜登的工作支持率仅为 33%。
“本周的昆尼皮亚克民意调查，就像昆尼皮亚克过去五个月的民意调查一样，很可能是一个异常值，”狄龙写道。
作为证据，她引用了 FiveThirtyEight 的平均民意调查（在所有民意调查中），显示拜登的平均工作支持率为 43%。她将拜登在 Q 民意调查中的低数字归咎于在回答他们是否赞成或不赞成拜登正在做的工作的问题时说他们“不知道”的人比例高于平均水平。”狄龙总结道：“这可能部分是因为 Quinnipiac 仍然专门使用一种称为 RDD（随机数字拨号，随机拨打电话号码）的方法来收集数据，许多主要组织已经放弃了这种方法。”
哪个，也许！
但是，在这里退一步。这是拜登白宫努力确保大约十分之四的人批准总统正在做的工作——而不是三分之一的人批准。即使我们相信狄龙的话——我认为我们应该这样做！ ——那么拜登在政治上的处境很艰难。
将拜登今天所处的位置与他的前任所处的位置进行比较。在最新的盖洛普月度民意调查中，拜登的支持率为 43%。大约在他们担任总统期间的同一时间，最后七人担任总统职位的位置如下：
唐纳德·特朗普：37%
巴拉克奥巴马：50%
乔治·W·布什：86%
比尔克林顿：54%
乔治 H.W.布什：71%
罗纳德·里根：49%
吉米卡特：57%
（所有这些数字都来自盖洛普总统职位审批中心，这是一项宝贵的资源。）
除了特朗普，拜登的状态是他们中最糟糕的。当然，特朗普所在的共和党在 2018 年的中期选举中失去了 41 个众议院席位和多数席位，两年后特朗普本人也失去了第二个任期。
这意味着，在民调中比特朗普稍好一点对拜登来说没什么好吹嘘的。 43% 的工作支持分数，如果它一直持续到 11 月——并且有一些证据表明这不是一个例外，而是目前拜登的规则——民主党人很可能会失去众议院，而且不会更好超过 50 比 50 出手以保持他们在参议院的多数席位。
那么，如果你是拜登的白宫，为什么要发布一份坚持总统获得 43% 支持的备忘录呢？嗯，这是因为 43% 是 11 月选票上令民主党人担忧的数字，而 33% 是引发全面恐慌的数字。
（值得注意的是，CNN 的最新民意调查，包括最近四次关于总统工作支持率的全国民意调查，他的支持率同样为 42%。）
随着民主党在众议院快速而激烈地退休——拜登试图推动“重建更好的法案”和新的投票权立法停滞不前——白宫处于危机模式，反击总统职位正在下沉和现在是跳船的时候了。 "
（另外值得注意的是：关于拜登总统任期内爆的话题如今很普遍；“拜登总统任期注定要失败吗？”历史学家朱利安·泽利泽（Julian Zelizer）周五在 CNN 的一篇文章中问道。）
因此，狄龙得出结论，“总统和国会民主党人将在 2022 年取得这一进展的基础上，解决价格上涨问题，缓解供应链瓶颈，实施两党基础设施法，并在抗击病毒方面取得更多进展。”
该推销的较短版本是这样的：坚持下去，它必须变得更好。
哪个，我明白了！但是，伙计，当获胜让人们相信总统的支持率为 43% 时，你知道你在政治上处于黑暗的境地。
The White House just put out a baffling polling memo
The White House wants to get something straight: President Joe Biden is unpopular. But he's not that unpopular.
Yes, really.
Witness a polling memo released Thursday night by deputy White House chief of staff Jen O'Malley Dillon that takes issue with a new Quinnipiac University poll that shows Biden's job approval at a meager 33%.
"This week's Quinnipiac poll, just like Quinnipiac's poll for the last five months, is very likely an outlier," writes Dillon.
As evidence, she cites the FiveThirtyEight running poll average (of all polls conducted) that shows Biden with an average job approval score of 43%. She blames Biden's low numbers in the Q poll on the higher-than-average percentage of people saying they "don't know" in response to the question of whether they approve or disapprove of the job Biden is doing." Concludes Dillon: "This is likely in part because Quinnipiac still exclusively uses a method called RDD (Random Digit Dialing, calling phone numbers at random) to collect data, a method which many major organizations have abandoned."
Which, maybe!
But, take a step back here. This is the Biden White House fighting to make sure that roughly four in ten people approve of the job the President is doing -- as opposed to one in three approving. Even if we take Dillon at her word -- and I think we should! -- then Biden is in rough shape politically.
Compare where Biden stands today to where his predecessors have been. Biden is at 43% approval in the latest Gallup monthly poll. At roughly this same time in their presidencies, here's where the last seven people to hold the office were:
Donald Trump: 37%
Barack Obama: 50%
George W. Bush: 86%
Bill Clinton: 54%
George H.W. Bush: 71%
Ronald Reagan: 49%
Jimmy Carter: 57%
(All these numbers come courtesy of Gallup's Presidential Job Approval Center, which is an invaluable resource.)
With the exception of Trump, Biden is in the worst shape of any of them. And, of course, Trump's Republican Party lost 41 House seats and the majority in the 2018 midterms and Trump himself lost his bid for a second term two years later.
Which means that being in slightly better polling shape than Trump is nothing for Biden to brag about. A 43% job approval score, if it holds all the way through November -- and there is some evidence that this is not an exception but rather the rules for Biden at this point -- Democrats are very likely to lose the House and no better than 50-50 shot to keep their Senate majority.
So, why then, if you are the Biden White House, put out a memo that insists that the president is at 43% approval? Well, it's because 43% is a number that worries Democrats on the ballot in November, while 33% is one that incites full-on panic.
(It's worth noting that CNN's latest poll of polls, which includes the four most recent national polls on the President's job approval rating, has him similarly at 42%.)
With Democratic retirements in the House coming fast and furious -- and Biden's attempted to push for the Build Back Better Act and new voting rights legislation stalled -- the White House is in crisis mode, fighting back against the idea that the presidency is sinking and now is the time to jump ship. "
(Also worth noting: Talk of Biden's presidency imploding is rife these days; "Is Biden's presidency doomed?" asks historian Julian Zelizer in a CNN piece Friday.)
Hence Dillon's conclusion that "the President and Congressional Democrats will build on this progress in 2022, addressing price increases, mitigating supply chain bottlenecks, implementing the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and making addition progress fighting the virus."
The shorter version of that pitch goes like this: Stick this out, it has to get better.
Which, I get! But man, you know you are in a dark place politically when winning is convincing people that the President is at 43%.
