高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一项分析显示，通胀加速可能导致美联储在今年加息的方式上变得比经济学家预期的更加激进。
由于市场已经预计今年将加息 4 个 25 个百分点，高盛经济学家大卫·梅里克 (David Mericle) 表示，微米级的利差正在加剧价格上涨，并可能推动美联储加快加息步伐。
“我们的基线预测要求在 3 月、6 月、9 月和 12 月进行四次加息，”Mericle 在周六给客户的报告中表示。 “但我们看到[联邦公开市场委员会]可能希望在每次会议上采取一些紧缩措施，直到通胀形势发生变化。”
该报告仅在决策小组周二开始的为期两天的会议前几天发布。
市场预计会议后不会对利率采取任何行动，但确实认为委员会将在 3 月份加息。如果发生这种情况，这将是自 2018 年 12 月以来央行基准利率的首次上调。
提高利率将是阻止通胀飙升的一种方式，通胀正以近 40 年来的 12 个月最高速度运行。
Mericle 表示，Covid 传播带来的经济并发症加剧了需求旺盛和供应受限之间的不平衡。其次，工资增长继续保持在高水平，尤其是在低收入工作岗位上，尽管增强的失业救济金已经到期，劳动力市场本应放松。
“我们看到 FOMC 可能希望在每次会议上采取一些收紧行动，直到情况发生变化，”Mericle 写道。 “这增加了加息或在 5 月提前公布资产负债表的可能性，以及今年加息超过四次的可能性。”
根据芝加哥商品交易所的数据，交易员预计 3 月会议上加息的可能性接近 95%，2022 年全年四次加息的可能性超过 85%。
然而，市场现在也开始倾向于今年的第五次加息，这将是投资者看到的最激进的美联储，可以追溯到世纪之交以及遏制互联网泡沫的努力。根据芝加哥商品交易所的 FedWatch 指标，五次加息的可能性已接近 60%。
除了加息外，美联储还在逐步缩减其每月的债券购买计划，目前的日期是 3 月，以结束使央行资产负债表扩大一倍多至接近 9 万亿美元的努力。尽管一些市场参与者猜测美联储可能会在下周的会议上关闭该计划，但高盛预计不会发生这种情况。
不过，美联储可以提供更多关于何时开始减持债券的迹象。
高盛预测该过程将于 7 月开始，并以每月 1000 亿美元的增量完成。该过程预计将持续 2 或 2.5 年，并将资产负债表缩减至仍然高企的 6.1 万亿美元至 6.6 万亿美元。 Mericle 表示，美联储可能会允许到期债券的部分收益每月展期，而不是直接出售证券。
然而，出人意料的强劲和持久的通胀运行给预测带来了上行风险。
“我们也越来越多地看到，联邦公开市场委员会希望在其 5 月会议上采取一些紧缩行动的好机会，届时通胀仪表盘可能仍然很热，”Mericle 写道。 “如果是这样，那最终可能导致今年加息四次以上。”
本周有一些关键的经济数据指出，尽管它们将在美联储会议之后公布。
第四季度 GDP 将于周四公布，经济学家预计增长 5.8% 左右，而作为美联储首选通胀指标的个人消费支出价格指数将于周五公布，预计将显示每月增长 0.5% 和一年-同比增长 4.8%。
Inflation surge could push the Fed into more than four rate hikes this year, Goldman Sachs says
Accelerating inflation could cause the Federal Reserve to get even more aggressive than economists expect in the way it raises interest rates this year, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.
With the market already expecting four quarter-percentage-point hikes this year, Goldman economist David Mericle said the omicron spread is aggravating price increases and could push the Fed into a faster pace of rate increases.
“Our baseline forecast calls for four hikes in March, June, September, and December,” Mericle said in a Saturday note to clients. “But we see a risk that the [Federal Open Market Committee] will want to take some tightening action at every meeting until the inflation picture changes.”
The report comes just a few days ahead of the policymaking group's two-day meeting starting on Tuesday.
Markets expect no action regarding interest rates following the gathering but do figure the committee will tee up a hike coming in March. If that happens, it will be the first increase in the central bank's benchmark rate since December 2018.
Raising interest rates would be a way to head off spiking inflation, which is running at its highest 12-month pace in nearly 40 years.
Mericle said that economic complications from the Covid spread have aggravated imbalances between booming demand and constrained supplies. Secondly, wage growth is continuing to run at high levels, particularly at lower-paying jobs, even though enhanced unemployment benefits have expired and the labor market should have loosened up.
“We see a risk that the FOMC will want to take some tightening action at every meeting until that picture changes,” Mericle wrote. “This raises the possibility of a hike or an earlier balance sheet announcement in May, and of more than four hikes this year.”
Traders are pricing in nearly a 95% chance of a rate increase at the March meeting, and a more than 85% chance of four moves in all of 2022, according to CME data.
However, the market also is now starting to tilt to a fifth hike this year, which would be the most aggressive Fed that investors have seen going back to the turn of the century and the efforts to tamp down the dot-com bubble. Chances of a fifth rate increase have moved to nearly 60%, according to the CME's FedWatch gauge.
In addition to hiking rates, the Fed also is winding down its monthly bond-buying program, with March as the current date to end an effort that has more than doubled the central bank balance sheet to just shy of $9 trillion. While some market participants have speculated that the Fed could shut down the program at next week's meeting, Goldman does not expect that to happen.
The Fed could, though, provide more indication about when it will start unwinding its bond holdings.
Goldman forecasts that process will begin in July and be done in $100 billion monthly increments. The process is expected to run for 2 or 2½ years and shrink the balance sheet to a still-elevated $6.1 trillion to $6.6 trillion. The Fed likely will allow some proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off each month rather than selling the securities outright, Mericle said.
However, the unexpectedly strong and durable inflation run has posed upside risks to forecasts.
“We also increasingly see a good chance that the FOMC will want to deliver some tightening action at its May meeting, when the inflation dashboard is likely to remain quite hot,” Mericle wrote. “If so, that could ultimately lead to more than four rate hikes this year.”
There are a few key economic data points out this week, though they will come after the Fed meets.
Fourth-quarter GDP is out Thursday, with economists expecting growth around 5.8%, while the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due out Friday and forecast to show a monthly gain of 0.5% and a year-over-year increase of 4.8%.
