根据麦肯锡公司报告的估计，随着世界努力应对日益恶化的气候变化危机，各国政府和公司承诺到 2050 年实现温室气体净零排放——这一目标将需要每年额外增加 3.5 万亿美元的资本支出周二发布。
这一数额相当于 2020 年全球企业利润的一半、税收总额的四分之一或家庭支出的 7%。
麦肯锡全球研究所合伙人、该报告的主要作者梅卡拉克里希南说：“净零转型将是一场大规模的经济转型。”
该报告估计了转型对产生全球约 85% 排放量的 69 个国家的需求、资本分配、成本和跨行业就业的影响。
报告称，转型期间能源和土地使用系统实物资产的资本支出将达到约 275 万亿美元，或平均每年 9.2 万亿美元。这比今天每年花在这些资产上的金额多出 3.5 万亿美元。
该报告称，为了实现净零过渡，必须将今天额外 1 万亿美元的年度支出从高排放资产重新分配到低排放资产。它还敦促企业、政府和机构为过渡期间的不确定性做好准备，并警告利益相关者加快脱碳和适应气候风险的努力。
根据政府间气候变化专门委员会的说法，要防止全球气温超过《巴黎气候协定》规定的 1.5 摄氏度目标，世界将需要在未来十年内将排放量减少近一半，并到 2050 年实现净零排放。
但世界已经比工业化前水平高出大约 1.1 摄氏度，并且有望在本世纪末看到全球气温上升 2.4 摄氏度。
如果不采取行动，气候变化的代价将是沉重的。例如，保险巨头瑞士再保险的一份报告估计，到 2050 年，气候变化可能会使全球经济减少 23 万亿美元，从根本上使全球经济产出减少约 11% 至 14%。
麦肯锡报告指出，净零转型也将对劳动力产生重大影响，到本世纪中叶，全球将增加约 2 亿个工作岗位，减少约 1.85 亿个工作岗位。占全球 GDP 约 20% 的高排放产品或运营部门也将对需求、生产成本和就业产生重大影响。
“实现净零的经济转型将是复杂和具有挑战性的，但我们的研究结果明确呼吁采取更深思熟虑、紧迫和果断的行动，以确保到 2050 年实现更有序的净零转型，”迪肯平纳说，麦肯锡高级合伙人兼麦肯锡可持续发展部联合负责人。
“现在的问题，”平纳说，“世界能否大胆行动，扩大未来十年所需的响应和投资。”
McKinsey calculates the staggering capital spending required to reach net-zero by 2050
As the world grapples with a worsening climate change crisis, governments and companies are pledging to achieve net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050 — a goal that will require an extra $3.5 trillion a year in capital spending, according to estimates from a McKinsey & Company report released on Tuesday.
That amount is the equivalent to half of global corporate profits, one-quarter of total tax revenue, or 7% of household spending in 2020.
“The net-zero transition will amount to a massive economic transformation,” said Mekala Krishnan, a partner at the McKinsey Global Institute and the lead author of the report.
The report estimates the transition's effects on demand, capital allocation, costs, and jobs across sectors in 69 countries that produce about 85% of global emissions.
Capital spending on physical assets for energy and land-use systems during the transition will amount to roughly $275 trillion, or $9.2 trillion each year on average, the report said. That's $3.5 trillion more than the amount being spent on those assets annually today.
The report said an additional $1 trillion of today's annual spending must be reallocated from high-emissions to low-emissions assets in order to achieve a net-zero transition. It also urged businesses, governments, and institutions to prepare for uncertainty during the transition and warned stakeholders to accelerate efforts to decarbonize and adapt to climate risk.
Keeping global temperatures from surpassing the 1.5 degrees Celsius target under the Paris Climate agreement would require the world to nearly halve emissions within the next decade and reach net-zero emissions by 2050, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
But the world has already warmed roughly 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and is on track to see global temperature rise of 2.4 degrees Celsius by the century's end.
The cost of climate change will be severe if no action is taken. For instance, a report from insurance giant Swiss Re estimates that climate change could cut the global economy by $23 trillion by 2050, essentially shaving off about 11% to 14% from global economic output.
The McKinsey report noted that the net-zero transition will also have a significant impact on labor, resulting in a gain of about 200 million jobs and a loss of about 185 million jobs across the world by mid-century. Sectors with high-emissions products or operations, which generate about 20% of global GDP, will also see major impacts on demand, production costs and employment.
“The economic transition to achieve net-zero will be complex and challenging, but our findings serve as a clear call for more thoughtful, urgent, and decisive action, to secure a more orderly transition to net zero by 2050,” said Dickon Pinner, a senior partner at McKinsey and co-leader of McKinsey Sustainability.
“The question now,” Pinner said, “is whether the world can act boldly and broaden the response and investment needed in the upcoming decade.”
