过去一周股市的剧烈波动对投资者来说是一场情绪化的过山车,而这一过程并没有完全停止。
现在感觉很糟糕,策略师表示,随着市场试图找到底部,情况可能会变得更糟。总体而言,像这样的时期并不多,道琼斯工业平均指数在两个方向上都出现了令人痛心的 1,000 点,而股票在一天内上下波动了几个百分点。
但策略师表示,当指数大幅下跌时,大动作并不少见。在这种情况下,投资者正在适应美联储的重大转变。中央银行正在摆脱其零利率的宽松政策。反过来,这也促使投资者重新评估整个股市的估值。
“这是一场拉锯战,波动就像血压。当你感到害怕、焦虑、紧张和不确定时,它就会升高,”CFRA 首席投资策略师 Sam Stovall 说。首先受到打击的是那些从低利率中受益的高飞股票,然后抛售蔓延到其他成长股和科技股,然后在本月席卷整个市场。
根据 Bespoke 的数据,标准普尔 500 指数在过去一周每天的盘中波动幅度至少为 2.25%。主要股指周五收高,收复了本周的跌幅,此前尾盘再次出现逆转。
本周,道琼斯指数上涨 1.3%,为四周以来首次上涨。标准普尔 500 指数本周小幅上涨 0.8% 至 4,431 点,纳斯达克综合指数持平。
截至周五收盘,标准普尔指数较历史高点下跌 8%,1 月份下跌 7%。纳斯达克指数从高点下跌 15%,本月下跌 12%。
Big swings in the market are more normal than investors might expect, but things could get worse
The stock market's wild gyrations this past week have been an emotional roller coaster for investors, and the ride has not come to a full stop.
It feels bad right now, and strategists say it could get worse as the market tries to find a floor. Overall, there have not been many periods like this, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average swings a gut-wrenching 1,000 points in both directions, and stocks move up and down several percentage points in one day.
But strategists say the big moves are not uncommon when the indexes are down substantially. In this case, investors are adjusting to a major shift by the Federal Reserve. The central bank is moving away from its easy policy of zero interest rates. In turn, this has made investors reassess valuations across the entire stock market.
“It's a tug of war and volatility is like blood pressure. It's elevated when you're scared, anxious, nervous and uncertain,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. The first stocks to get hit were the high-flying names that benefit from low interest rates, and then the sell-off spread to other growth and tech stocks before encompassing the entire market this month.
According to Bespoke, the S&P 500 has had an intraday range of at least 2.25% every day in the past week. The major averages ended Friday higher, wiping out the week's losses, after pulling off another late day reversal.
For the week, the Dow was up 1.3%, the first positive week in four. The S&P 500 edged up 0.8% to 4,431 to end the week, and the Nasdaq Composite was flat.
The S&P was 8% off its all-time high as of Friday's close, and is down 7% for the month of January. The Nasdaq is 15% off its high, and is down 12% for the month.