周三，PayPal 的股价下跌超过 25%，此前一天该公司提供了疲弱的指引，部分原因是通货膨胀。
PayPal 报告第四季度业绩喜忧参半。每股收益为 1.11 美元（不含项目），低于预期的 1.12 美元。不过，Refinitiv 的数据显示，该公司的收入为 69.2 亿美元，高于预期的 68.7 亿美元。
但它也表示，预计第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益为 87 美分，而分析师此前预计为 1.16 美元。它还预计，在即期和外汇中性的基础上，2022 年全年的收入将增长约 15% 至 17%。分析师预计 2022 年收入同比增长 17.9%。
在接受 CNBC 采访时，PayPal 首席执行官 Dan Schulman 表示，该公司采取了“谨慎的方法”来制定指导方针，但预计下半年收入将加速增长。
他指出了挑战，包括前所有者 eBay 向自己的支付平台的过渡，以及通货膨胀等“外生因素”降低了消费者支出和供应链问题“不成比例地影响”跨境支付。
PayPal 还未能实现用户增长目标，部分原因是有 450 万个“非法”账户加入了该平台，这“影响了我们在本季度实现指导的能力，”首席财务官约翰·雷尼 (John Rainey) 表示。该公司还撤回了其用户增长目标，Rainey 称这是专注于“可持续增长和推动参与度”的“选择”。
前身为 Square 的金融科技服务 Block 在周三早上也下跌了 10% 以上。而现在购买以后付费服务 Affirm 则下降了 9% 以上。
Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets 分析师维持对该股的买入评级，但将目标价从 315 美元下调至 215 美元，周二在一份报告中写道，PayPal 的挑战主要是“短期逆风”。
“虽然净新账户的增长速度预计将在 2022 年放缓，但我们看到用户参与度指标稳步增长，并预计在 2022 年推动参与度的背后会有更多营销活动，”Canaccord 报告称。 “PYPL 已经表明，尽管它在利用迅速出现的机会方面规模庞大，但它仍然很灵活：扩大令人印象深刻的先买后付 (BNPL) 产品和推出股票交易。”
分析师对先前宣布的 Venmo 与亚马逊的合作表示乐观，他们预计这“可能是 2022 年 PYPL 的最大单一催化剂”。
BTIG 分析师将该股评级下调至中性并取消了 270 美元的目标价，周二在一份报告中表示，PayPal 现在是一个“向我展示”的故事。他们引用了“不确定性”的新领域，包括“公司获取和参与客户的方式发生了重大转变”。他们还指出该公司的评论是，由于通货膨胀和供应链问题，全年预测是谨慎的，分析师表示，这“与信用卡网络最近提供的更为乐观的年度前景形成鲜明对比。”
PayPal shares dive 25% after company blames inflation for weak guidance
Shares of PayPal were down more than 25% on Wednesday, a day after the company provided weak guidance that it blamed in part on inflation.
PayPal reported mixed results for the fourth quarter. Earnings per share of $1.11, ex-items, missed the $1.12 expected. It beat on revenue estimates, though, reporting $6.92 billion vs. $6.87 billion expected, according to Refinitiv.
But it also said it expects first-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share of 87 cents, while analysts had been projecting $1.16. It also anticipated that revenue would grow about 15% to 17% for full-year 2022, on a spot and foreign currency-neutral basis. Analysts expected year-over-year revenue growth of 17.9% for 2022.
In an interview with CNBC, PayPal CEO Dan Schulman said the company took “a measured approach” to guidance, but expects revenue to accelerate in the second half of the year.
He pointed to challenges including the transition of former owner eBay to its own payments platform and “exogenous factors” like inflation bringing down consumer spending and supply chain issues “disproportionately impacting” cross-border payments.
PayPal also missed user growth targets due in part to 4.5 million “illegitimate” accounts that joined the platform, which “affected our ability to achieve our guidance in the quarter,” CFO John Rainey said. The company also walked back its user growth goals, which Rainey said was a “choice” to focus on “sustainable growth and driving engagement.”
Block, the fintech service formerly known as Square, was also down more than 10% on Wednesday morning. And buy now pay later service Affirm was down more than 9%.
Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets analysts, who maintained a buy rating on the stock but lowered their price target from $315 to $215, wrote in a note Tuesday that PayPal's challenges are mainly “short-term headwinds.”
“While the pace of growth in net new accounts is expected to moderate in 2022, we are seeing a steady increase in user engagement metrics and expect to see more marketing behind driving engagement in 2022,” the Canaccord note said. “And already PYPL has shown that it remains nimble despite its size in exploiting rapidly emerging opportunities: scaling an impressive Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) offering and launch of equity trading.”
The analysts expressed optimism about the previously announced Venmo partnership with Amazon, which they expect “could be the largest single catalyst for PYPL in 2022.”
BTIG analysts, who downgraded the stock to neutral and removed their $270 price target, said in a note Tuesday that PayPal is now a ”‘show me' story.” They cited new areas of “uncertainty” including the “significant shift in the company's approach to customer acquisition and engagement.” They also pointed to the company's comments that the full-year forecast was cautious due in part to inflation and supply chain issues, which the analysts said “offered a sharp contrast with the more upbeat annual outlooks offered recently by the card networks.”
