Wholesale prices rise 1% in January, up near-record 9.7% over the past year
Prices at the wholesale level jumped twice the expected level in January as inflation pressures were unabated to start the year, the Labor Department said Tuesday.
The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services, increased 1% for the month, against the Dow Jones estimate for 0.5%. Over the past 12 months the gauge rose an unadjusted 9.7%, close to a record in data going back to 2010.
Excluding food, energy and trade services, co-called core PPI climbed 0.9% for the month, well ahead of the 0.4% estimate. For the 12-month period, the measure increased 6.9%. Both core and headline PPI gains over the year were 0.1 percentage point lower than the record levels hit in December 2021.
As has been the case through much of the Covid pandemic era, goods prices outweighed those for services, rising 1.3% and 0.7% respectively. Final demand energy prices jumped 2.5% in January, while food climbed 1.6%.
The increases come amid burgeoning inflation across the economy, with consumer prices running at a 40-year high.
“PPI offers a window to the price pressures that businesses are facing, and which will likely be passed on to consumers in the way of consumer price inflation in the months to come,” PNC economist Kurt Rankin wrote. “Strong gains across the board for businesses reinforce the inflationary concerns that the Federal Reserve is set to battle this year with monetary policy, and which the economy in general has recently begun expressing caution and concern over.”
Fed officials plan to act soon to contain the price rises, with interest rate hikes expected to begin in March and continue throughout the year. The White House in a statement said it respects the Fed's independence and urged Congress to vote on two nominees to the board of governors.
President Joe Biden “will continue to make progress on his three-part plan of addressing supply chain disruptions; lowering kitchen tables costs with his Build Back Better agenda; and promoting more competition,” the statement said.
A separate report Tuesday morning showed that manufacturing activity in the New York region was little changed in February. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, conducted by the New York Fed, registered a 3.1 reading, up from -0.7 in January but below the 11 estimate.
The gauge represents the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion against those seeing contraction.
New orders and hiring posted significant gains, but they were mostly outweighed by declines in general business conditions and unfilled orders. Inflation also showed up in that report, with the prices received index spiking 17 points as 58.6% of companies disclosed getting higher prices while just 4.5% reported a decrease. The reading of 54.1 was a record high in data going back to July 2001.
The numbers come a day after the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for January saw a surprise decrease in short- and medium-term inflation expectations. The one-year outlook decreased to 5.8% from 6% the previous month, while the three-year expectations slid half a percentage point to 3.5%.
Market-based inflation measures over five- and 10-year spans remain elevated but are off the spikes they saw in November 2021.
Still, the Fed is prepared to tighten monetary policy after two years of unprecedented accommodation. Nearly all central bank policymakers say they expect a rate increase next month, and the market is pricing in a strong possibility of a 1.75 percentage point increase by the end of 2022.
劳工部周二表示，由于通胀压力在年初有增无减，1 月份批发价格上涨了两倍于预期水平。 衡量最终需求商品和服务的生产者价格指数本月上涨 1%，而道琼斯估计为 0.5%。在过去 12 个月中，该指标未经调整上涨了 9.7%，接近 2010 年以来的数据记录。
剔除食品、能源和贸易服务的核心 PPI 本月上涨 0.9%，远高于预期的 0.4%。在 12 个月期间，该措施增加了 6.9%。全年核心和总体 PPI 涨幅均比 2021 年 12 月创下的创纪录水平低 0.1 个百分点。
与 Covid 大流行时代的大部分时间一样，商品价格超过服务价格，分别上涨 1.3% 和 0.7%。 1 月份最终需求能源价格上涨 2.5%，而食品价格上涨 1.6%。
这一增长是在整个经济体通胀迅速上升的情况下发生的，消费者价格处于 40 年来的最高水平。
PNC 经济学家 Kurt Rankin 写道：“PPI 为企业面临的价格压力提供了一个窗口，并且可能会在未来几个月以消费者价格通胀的方式传递给消费者。” “企业的全面强劲增长加剧了对通胀的担忧，即美联储今年将与货币政策作斗争，而整体经济最近开始表达谨慎和担忧。”
美联储官员计划尽快采取行动遏制物价上涨，预计加息将从 3 月开始，并持续到全年。白宫在一份声明中表示，它尊重美联储的独立性，并敦促国会对两名理事会提名人进行投票。
乔·拜登总统“将继续在解决供应链中断问题的三部分计划上取得进展；通过他的“重建更好”议程降低厨房餐桌成本；并促进更多的竞争，”声明说。
周二上午的另一份报告显示，纽约地区的制造业活动在 2 月份几乎没有变化。由纽约联邦储备银行进行的帝国州制造业调查显示读数为 3.1，高于 1 月份的-0.7，但低于 11 的估计值。
该指标代表报告扩张的公司与看到收缩的公司之间的百分比差异。
新订单和招聘录得显着增长，但大部分都被整体商业状况的下降和未完成的订单所抵消。通胀也出现在该报告中，58.6% 的公司披露价格上涨，而只有 4.5% 的公司表示价格下跌，因此价格指数飙升 17 点。 54.1 的读数是 2001 年 7 月以来数据的历史新高。
该数字是在纽约联储 1 月份消费者预期调查显示中短期通胀预期意外下降的第二天发布的。一年期预期从上个月的 6% 下降至 5.8%，而三年期预期下降半个百分点至 3.5%。
基于市场的 5 年和 10 年通胀指标仍处于高位，但已脱离 2021 年 11 月的峰值。
尽管如此，经过两年前所未有的宽松政策，美联储仍准备收紧货币政策。几乎所有央行政策制定者都表示，他们预计下个月会加息，市场预计到 2022 年底加息 1.75 个百分点的可能性很大。
