NATO's chief says Russia could invade Ukraine ‘without any warning at all' as Putin tests missile launches
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has posed the question that's kept the world on edge for weeks: will Russia attack Ukraine?
Not even those in the Russian government — besides President Vladimir Putin — appear to know the answer, but the fact remains that there has been a steady buildup of Russian troops and military hardware near the Ukraine border; the largest since the end of the Cold War.
“They have all the capabilities in place, Russia, to launch an attack on Ukraine without any warning at all. No one is denying that Russia has all these forces in place,” Stoltenberg told CNBC's Hadley Gamble at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. “The question is, will they launch an attack?”
Over 150,000 Russian troops are stationed at various points along the border with Ukraine. Russian forces have also been posted in Belarus, an ally that lies to the north of Ukraine.
Stoltenberg's comments came as Russia's military launched ballistic and cruise missiles on Saturday in a show of its nuclear readiness. It was part of what the Kremlin called a “planned exercise of the strategic deterrence forces.”
“Aerospace Forces successfully launched Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles. Ships and submarines of the Northern and Black Sea Fleets launched Kalibr cruise missiles and Zirkon hypersonic missiles at sea and ground targets,” the statement from the Russian presidency said Saturday.
“The tasks envisaged during the exercise of the strategic deterrence forces were completed in full, all missiles hit their assigned targets, confirming the specified characteristics.”
‘Very high risk'
Moscow has insisted it has no plans to invade Ukraine and its forces in Belarus are there for military drills set to take place in the coming days. The U.S. and its Western allies have warned of severe economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia should an invasion go ahead.
“Of course there is no certainty about that,” Stoltenberg added. U.S. President Joe Biden has issued numerous warnings that an invasion is imminent, much to the mockery of Russia and its allies.
But Stoltenberg added: “NATO allies and the United States have the same assessment, that it's a very high risk for a Russian attack on Ukraine.”
Russia's military said in a statement earlier this week that it was pulling back some of its troops to mark the end of their exercises, leading markets to breathe a brief sigh of relief, but Western leaders stress that there is no evidence of a genuine reduction in forces around Ukraine.
Also of concern is “the very threatening rhetoric,” the NATO chief added, noting that, “we have seen attempts by Russia to stage a pretext — the Ukraine situation in Donbas or somewhere else — as an excuse for attacking Ukraine. We have seen false accusations about genocide, we have seen accusations of violations of ceasefires in Donbas, and all of this of course adds to the picture that this is a real danger for a Russian attack.”
The U.S. has accused Russia of plotting to fabricate an attack by Ukrainian forces as a pretext for the invasion of its neighbor. The White House said in early February that it has intelligence Russia is considering using a staged video of a Ukrainian attack involving actors.
The Kremlin has denied it is preparing any “false flag” operations.
The accusation comes amid a prolonged period of escalated tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with the U.S. and NATO concerned about the unfurling geopolitical crisis.
北约秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格提出了一个让世界紧张数周的问题：俄罗斯会攻击乌克兰吗？ 甚至俄罗斯政府中的那些人——除了总统弗拉基米尔·普京——似乎也不知道答案，但事实仍然是，俄罗斯军队和军事装备在乌克兰边境附近稳步集结。冷战结束以来最大的一次。
“他们拥有一切能力，俄罗斯，可以在没有任何警告的情况下对乌克兰发动攻击。没有人否认俄罗斯拥有所有这些力量，”斯托尔滕贝格周六在慕尼黑安全会议上告诉 CNBC 的 Hadley Gamble。 “问题是，他们会发动攻击吗？”
超过 150,000 名俄罗斯军队驻扎在与乌克兰接壤的不同地点。俄罗斯军队也被派驻在位于乌克兰北部的盟友白俄罗斯。
斯托尔滕贝格发表上述言论之际，俄罗斯军方周六发射了弹道导弹和巡航导弹，以显示其核准备就绪。这是克里姆林宫所说的“战略威慑力量的计划演习”的一部分。
“航空航天部队成功发射了金扎尔高超音速航空弹道导弹。俄罗斯总统府周六发表声明说，北海和黑海舰队的舰船和潜艇向海上和地面目标发射了 Kalibr 巡航导弹和 Zirkon 高超音速导弹。
“战略威慑力量演习期间设想的任务已全部完成，所有导弹都击中了指定目标，确认了特定特征。”
“非常高的风险”
莫斯科坚称没有入侵乌克兰的计划，其在白俄罗斯的部队将在未来几天举行军事演习。美国及其西方盟友警告称，如果俄罗斯继续入侵，将对俄罗斯实施严厉的经济和外交制裁。
“当然，这并不确定，”斯托尔滕贝格补充道。美国总统乔·拜登多次发出警告，称入侵迫在眉睫，这让俄罗斯及其盟友颇为嘲讽。
但斯托尔滕贝格补充说：“北约盟国和美国有相同的评估，即俄罗斯袭击乌克兰的风险非常高。”
俄罗斯军方本周早些时候在一份声明中表示，它正在撤回部分军队以纪念演习的结束，这让市场暂时松了一口气，但西方领导人强调，没有证据表明军演真正减少。乌克兰周边的部队。
北约负责人补充说，同样令人担忧的是“非常具有威胁性的言论”，并指出，“我们已经看到俄罗斯试图编造借口——乌克兰在顿巴斯或其他地方的局势——作为攻击乌克兰的借口。我们看到了关于种族灭绝的不实指控，我们看到了违反顿巴斯停火协议的指控，所有这些当然都增加了俄罗斯袭击的真正危险。”
美国指责俄罗斯密谋编造乌克兰军队的袭击作为入侵邻国的借口。白宫在 2 月初表示，它拥有情报，俄罗斯正在考虑使用一段乌克兰演员参与的袭击视频。
克里姆林宫否认正在准备任何“假旗”行动。
这一指控是在俄罗斯和乌克兰之间长期紧张升级的情况下提出的，美国和北约对不断升级的地缘政治危机感到担忧。
